Betting the 2026 Kentucky Derby on Different Budgets

The 152nd Kentucky Derby (G1) is upon us, and another full and fantastic field of sophomores will go postward at Churchill Downs for the first leg of the Triple Crown.

As is the case in many editions of the tilt, one can make an argument for the majority of the field in the sensational event, but I have narrowed my top selections down to three.

$24 Budget

• $8 win #6 Commandment ($8)
• $2 Exacta: key box 6 with 1,12 ($8)
• $1 Trifecta: 6 with 1,12 with 1,8,12,14,19 ($8)

$48 Budget

• $4 Exacta: box 1,6,12 ($24)
• $2 Trifecta: 6 with 1,12 with 1,8,12,14,19 ($16)
• $1 Trifecta: 1,12 with 6 with 1,8,12,14,19 ($8)

$96 Budget

• $1 Superfecta: 6 with 1,12 with 1,8,12,14,19 with 1,8,9,12,14,15,18,19,20 ($48)
• $1 Superfecta: 1,12 with 6 with 1,8,12,14,19 with 1,8,9,12,14,15,18,19,20 ($48)

Florida Derby (G1) winner #6 Commandment (6-1) comes into Louisville with four wins in succession for Brad Cox. The son of the incomparable Into Mischief became my leading pick with his professional score in the Fountain of Youth (G2) two starts back, and he followed that victory up with an impressive tally in the Florida Derby in his latest showing. The Wathnan Racing color bearer broke his maiden beneath the Twin Spires, and he checks all of the boxes for me. 

The Bill Mott-trained #12 Chief Wallabee (8-1) has been just behind the aforementioned colt in his two stakes tries and might have the highest ceiling of any contender in the field. The Constitution homebred has earned strong Brisnet Late Pace ratings in each career run to date, and while I’m not sure about the addition of blinkers, I will trust his Hall of Fame conditioner and expect that the hood going on will move the super-talented bay up a length or two. He possesses useful tactical speed and could get the jump on the deeper closing types in the race beneath Junior Alvarado. 

Some will fade morning-line choice #1 Renegade (4-1) after he was assigned the often-dreaded rail post in the Run for the Roses, but I actually feel that the inner slot will not be a hindrance for the powerful sophomore. I thought that his Arkansas Derby (G1) score was even more impressive than it appears to be on paper, as Irad Ortiz, Jr. had a ton of horse under him for much of that 1 1/8-mile event before unleashing him in the stretch. The Into Mischief colt will be imposing if he endures a sensible trip, which I feel that he will. 

For the lower rungs of my plays, I have a trio of value horses that deserve inclusion in the competitive contest, in my opinion. Santa Anita Derby (G1) star #8 So Happy (15-1) has been growing on me. Mark Glatt pupil aced his test at 1 1/8 miles last out, and while he’s by a sire in Runhappy that is not known for his prowess with horses running classic distances, the colt surely doesn’t seem like he has distance limitations to me. Mike Smith will ride.

Lecomte (G3) star #19 Golden Tempo (30-1) ran a close third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his latest effort and will run with the blinkers on for the second time in his lifetime. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has reportedly been working in sharp fashion as of late, and any horse that has improved its Brisnet Speed rating in each lifetime run has to be paid attention to. He will be coming from well off the early tempo under regular rider Jose Ortiz. 

Bob Baffert’s #14 Potente (20-1), a clear second in the Santa Anita Derby, has come a long way in a short amount of time and runs for a trainer who has come out on top in the race on six prior occasions. Also by Into Mischief, the $2.4 million yearling purchase could be peaking on Saturday after recording a rapid morning move in his most recent drill, and the longshot will have regular jockey Juan Hernandez in the silks.