Tipsheet: 2026 Kentucky Derby

A full field of the top three-year-olds in training will go postward in Saturday’s historic $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby Picks

• #6 Commandment
• #12 Chief Wallabee
• #1 Renegade
• #8 So Happy
• #19 Golden Tempo

Kentucky Derby Wagers

• $40 win and place #6 Commandment
• $10 Exacta: key box 6 with 1,8,12,19
• $1 Trifecta: 1,6,12 with 1,6,8,12,19 with 1,6,8,9,12,14,15,18,19

Kentucky Derby Contenders

#1 RENEGADE (4-1): Powerful son of Into Mischief was visually excellent when dusting his foes in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park in advance of his initial run beneath the Twin Spires. The sure win threat boasts a robust turn of foot and appears to be coming up to a peak effort in his third run of the season, as well. Irad Ortiz, who has piloted numerous contenders in the race in the past, opts to guide the morning-line favorite from the tricky rail slot. The colt will be formidable if he has clear sailing in the stretch. 

#2 ALBUS (30-1): Riley Mott trainee has improved his Brisnet Speed rating in each lifetime run to date and comes off a late-running score in the Wood Memorial (G2) most recently. The Pin Oak colorbearer is obviously on the improve, and he does possess a nice turn of foot, so the son of Yaupon could make some noise in the latter stages of the tilt with Manny Franco on board. 

#3 INTREPIDO (50-1): Jeff Mullins pupil earned his biggest win to date when taking the 2025 American Pharoah (G1). The son of Maximus Mischief faltered in the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his latest, and will need a big step forward to challenge for a share against this group, with Hector Berrios signed on for the voyage. 

#4 LITMUS TEST (30-1): Baffert trainee has been outrun in a pair of outings in 2026, including a seventh-place result in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his most recent run. The Grade-2 winning son of Nyquist will have the blinkers back on in the Derby, but he is hard to back with confidence in his current form cycle. Martin Garcia will have the talented colt involved from the break on Saturday. 

#5 RIGHT TO PARTY (30-1): One-run closing type from the barn of Kenny McPeek was third in the Gotham (G3) two back, which preceded a runner-up result in the Wood Memorial (G2) in his latest effort. The chestnut son of Constitution will need the pace to back up in a big way to make an impact in the Run for the Roses, with jockey Christopher Elliot making his riding debut in the storied event. 

#6 COMMANDMENT (6-1): Florida Derby (G1) star comes to Louisville on a four-race win streak and will likely be among the favorites at post time for Brad Cox. The $500,000 yearling purchase has earned Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 104 and 121 in his pair of two-turn races to date, and the son of Into Mischief was also a big maiden winner in his lone prior run beneath the Twin Spires, as well. Luis Saez will guide the powerful colt, who is my top pick in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. 

#7 DANON BOURBON (20-1): Unbeaten Kentucky-bred romped in the Fukuryu S. in his latest venture and comes in with a perfect three-for-three mark in advance of his U. S. debut. The Manabu Ikezoe trainee is bred to handle the distance and has room for improvement with just three lifetime showings to date. Atsuya Nishimura will be in the silks atop the wildcard.

#8 SO HAPPY (15-1): Mark Glatt charge was a sharp winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his most recent effort and will be a contender with even slight improvement off of that coup. The Kentucky-bred son of Runhappy is three-for-four with a third in his career, and he answered the 1 1/8-mile question last time, as well. The bay has excellent tactical speed and wouldn’t be a surprise with Mike Smith staying on board. 

#9 THE PUMA (10-1): Gustavo Delgado pupil rallied to take the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) two races back and checked in a very close second in the Florida Derby most recently. The chestnut son of Essential Quality has knocked heads with some of the best sophomores in training all season long and deserves a lot of attention in the contest. Javier Castellano will take the reins. 

#10 WONDER DEAN (30-1): Japanese-bred grandson of Deep Impact put in a fine stretch run to collar a clear one in his UAE Derby (G2) tally most recently. The dark bay colt has run well in his four races at nine furlongs or longer, and the import could be any kind in his initial run in the U.S. The Takayanagi pupil will have Ryusei Sakai in the silks. 

#11 INCREDIBOLT (20-1): Virginia Derby star bagged the Street Sense S. (G3) on the course as a juvenile and will make his third run of the year for Riley Mott. The son of Bolt d’Oro looks to be a cut below the big guns in the group, but he did thrive in his first run at nine panels last time, and the added distance could be to his benefit on Saturday, too. Regular pilot Jaime Torres will be in the silks once again. 

#12 CHIEF WALLABEE (8-1): Constitution homebred was a flashy debut winner on Jan. 10 and has run big while close in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby as of late. Trained by Bill Mott, the talented colt will be equipped with blinkers for the initial time in the Derby, and if the equipment change moves him forward, then the bay will be a major player inside the final furlong beneath regular pilot Junior Alvarado. 

#13 SILENT TACTIC (20-1): Grade 3 winner from the barn of Mark Casse has been first or second in each of his six lifetime runs to date and has exotics appeal at a big price in his first run over the surface. The $500,000 son of Tacitus was clear in second in the Arkansas Derby most recently, and the bay will be seen making his move approaching the turn for home with Christian Torres retaining the ride. 

#14 POTENTE (20-1): The $2.4 million yearling purchase dueled on the front end and stayed on well in the lane when a clear runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby for Bob Baffert. The San Felipe (G2) victor has improved with each run to date and will likely do so again for a barn that has endured so much success with six winners in the race to date. The Into Mischief colt is training well and has a lot of top-four appeal with Juan Hernandez in the irons. 

#15 EMERGING MARKET (15-1): Chad Brown pupil is two-for-two in his career, led by a game victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his most recent performance. The chestnut son of Candy Ride is short on experience but long on talent, and he has reportedly been working well leading up to his third lifetime appearance, too. The Klaravich color bearer is expected to rally from off the pace with Flavien Prat retaining the ride. 

#16 PAVLOVIAN (30-1): California-bred son of Pavel is peaking at the right time for two-time Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill. The Reddam homebred has good early speed in a field lacking an abundance of pace, and the gray figures to be forcing the tempo from the break if he gets away cleanly from the gate in his local debut. Edwin Maldonado will be in the silks once again. 

#17 SIX SPEED (50-1): Fleet son of Not This Time was clear in second after dictating the tempo in the UAE Derby (G2) in preparation for his stateside debut. The Kentucky-bred colt had won a trio of races in succession prior to his latest outing at Meydan, and the colt will be forwardly placed from the break beneath Brian Hernandez, Jr. for conditioner Bhupat Seemar.

#18 FURTHER ADO (6-1): Blue Grass (G1) romper is a Grade 2 winner over the Churchill Downs strip and could peak while making his third run of the season. The Gun Runner sophomore has progressed steadily since stretching out in distance, and the $550,000 purchase has to be considered one of the major contenders in the cast beneath the ageless John Velazquez.

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO (30-1): Cherie DeVaux trainee earned his biggest win of the season in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, and the talented late runner was last seen rallying to be a close third in the Louisiana Derby. The homebred son of Curlin has upped his Brisnet Speed rating in every lifetime run to date and will be a late factor with continued ascension, with Jose Ortiz retaining the ride. 

#20 FULLEFFORT (20-1): Brad Cox trainee ran his best race to date when rallying home to post a strong score in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the Tapeta at Turfway Park on March 21. The gray son of Liam’s Map has been first or second in a handful of races in succession and will go on the dirt for the initial time on Saturday. The dangerous late runner will have Tyler Gaffalione in the stirrups. 

#21 GREAT WHITE (Also-Eligible) (50-1): John Battaglia Memorial hero showed speed but was empty in the lane of the Blue Grass in his latest showing and would be an enormous surprise in his second attempt on the dirt. The John Ennis trainee appears overmatched against this cast at this stage of his development. Alex Achard will be up. 

#22 OCELLI (Also-Eligible) (50-1): Wood Memorial third and put in a nice late run to earn his first graded placing most recently. The Whit Beckman charge has yet to run fast enough to challenge the top players in this race, and the bay son of Connect will need a career-best performance to earn a minor share under the guidance of Joe Ramos.

#23 ROBUSTA (Also-Eligible) (50-1): Speedy son of Accelerate was a big runner-up in the San Felipe two prior but was last seen finishing a disappointing seventh in the Santa Anita Derby for Doug O’Neill. The inconsistent, but capable, colt will bring pace to the race if he draws in. The longshot three-year-old will have Emisael Jaramillo on board. 

#24 CORONA DE ORO (Also-Eligible) (50-1): Dallas Stewart pupil has obvious ability, but he could only muster a third-place result in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland two weeks back, and the sophomore looks to be in deep on this occasion. Brian Hernandez, Jr., will be in the saddle.