How John Mucciolo is Betting the 2026 Kentucky Derby

A full field will vie in the ultra-competitive $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday at Churchill Downs, and it’s time to cement my wagers for the Run for the Roses.

As is the case in many years, I have gone back and forth with my choices for the 1 1/4-mile spectacle throughout the spring, but I have finally cemented my choices and plan of attack for the thrilling event. 

John Mucciolo’s 2026 Kentucky Derby Wagers

• $8 Exacta: box 1,6,12 ($48)
• $1 Trifecta: 1,6,12 with 1,6,12 with 1,6,8,9,12,14,15,18,19,20 ($48)
• $1 Superfecta: 6 with 1,12 with 1,8,12,14,15,19 with 1,8,9,12,14,15,18,19,20 ($70)

Two performances this spring stood out to me the most this spring, led by the excellent win registered by #6 Commandment (6-1) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28. The Brad Cox pupil was making his two-turn debut in the tilt and passed the exam with flying colors in my opinion. Traveling towards the inside on the part of the surface that was not the best on that day, the Into Mischief colt rallied like a seasoned pro in the lane to post a neck victory in the race that was better than it appeared to be on paper. He galloped out with a ton of energy past the wire, and I pegged him as my ‘Derby horse’ right after watching the event. 

Equally impressive to that performance on the same day was the easy win recorded by morning-line choice #1 Renegade (4-1) in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. The Todd Pletcher trainee drove home with a sensational turn of foot to win in going-away fashion, but it was more of how he looked prior to the stretch run that was most impressive to me. The Into Mischief colt was under a tight hold from Irad Ortiz, Jr. for much of the 1 1/8-mile contest before being unleashed late, and I feel that he could have been seven or eight lengths clear under the wire if his jockey had asked him for his run earlier in the race. He will be formidable with anything resembling a good trip. 

A third horse with big upside to me is #12 Chief Wallabee (8-1), who has been very impressive for a lightly raced colt for trainer Bill Mott, who is superb at pointing horses towards a big race, in general. The Constitution homebred has faced quality opponents in each of his three outings to date, and I believe that we have not seen the best of him as of yet. He’s been fairly professional leading up to his Louisville debut, and if the addition of blinkers moves him forward and keeps him more focused on Saturday, then he will be a major factor in the stretch. His robust Brisnet Late Pace ratings indicate that the move to 1 1/4 miles will benefit him, as well. 

For the lower slots of the vertical exotics I will also include #8 So Happy (15-1), #9 The Puma (10-1), #14 Potente (20-1), #15 Emerging Market (15-1), #18 Further Ado (6-1), #19 Golden Tempo (30-1), and #20 Fulleffort (20-1).