2026 Kentucky Derby Brisnet Late Pace rating report

Brisnet Late Pace ratings are a powerful tool for identifying key win contenders and live longshots in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Ten of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners posted a triple-digit Late Pace rating in one or both of their final starts leading up to the first Saturday in May.

In the 2024 Kentucky Derby, only six horses met this standard of excellence. They included the victorious Mystik Dan, an 18-1 longshot, plus runner-up Sierra Leone (4-1) and fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom (7-1). By mixing them with international challenger and well-regarded 7-1 shot Forever Young (who had yet to earn a Late Pace rating), bettors had a chance to cash a $1 superfecta worth $8,254.07.

In 2025, another six horses matched the recent triple-digit Late Pace rating requirement. Five of them—Sovereignty (7-1), Journalism (3-1), Baeza (13-1), Final Gambit (17-1), and Owen Almighty (40-1)—finished 1-2-3-4-5. Boxing all six horses in a $1 Super High 5 would have cost $720 for a return of $38,405.96.

Will Late Pace ratings prove similarly predictive in the 2026 Kentucky Derby? Let’s cross our fingers and hope so.

Brisnet Late Pace ratings in the 2026 Kentucky Derby

Here are the last two Late Pace ratings posted by each 2026 Kentucky Derby contender, including possible also-eligible entrants Litmus Test and Great White, but excluding Wonder Dean, Six Speed, and Danon Bourbon, three international shippers for whom Late Pace ratings are unavailable:

Takeaways

This year, 10 horses have posted a triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace rating in one or both of their last two starts.

The group is led by Florida Derby (G1) winner Commandment (121 and 104), Florida Derby third-place finisher Chief Wallabee (117 and 104), and Arkansas Derby (G1) conqueror Renegade (109 and 111). They’re the only three entrants boasting back-to-back triple-digit Late Pace ratings.

Other entrants with particularly strong Late Pace ratings on their record include Florida Derby runner-up The Puma (117) and Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt (115). The Florida Derby featured a slow early/fast late race shape, which is why Commandment, The Puma, and Chief Wallabee all managed to crack the 117 mark.

Eight horses posted a triple-digit Late Pace rating in their final start before the Derby. Two others failed in their latest start, but achieved the standard two starts back: Emerging Market (106 in a maiden special weight) and Fulleffort (103 in the John Battaglia Memorial S.).

A couple of horses who appeared to be closing strongly in their final prep race actually earned modest Late Pace ratings. Albus and Right to Party rallied from far back to finish first and second in the Wood Memorial (G2), but the pace was decelerating sharply through the final three furlongs, so they earned Late Pace ratings of 89 and 92.

After averaging the last two Late Pace ratings earned by each horse in the prospective 2026 Kentucky Derby field, here’s how the U.S.-based contenders stack up:

Last year, the top four horses ranked by average Late Pace rating were Journalism, Final Gambit, Baeza, and Sovereignty. Boxing them in a $1 superfecta would have cost $24 for a return of $1,682.27.

Perhaps Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Renegade, and The Puma can repeat the feat in 2026.