The power of Brisnet Late Pace ratings
Among the many handicapping tools found in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances are Brisnet Late Pace ratings. Along with Speed ratings and E1 and E2 Pace ratings, Late Pace ratings measure how fast a horse ran in its previous races.
Specifically, Late Pace ratings measure finishing speed. In sprints, Late Pace covers everything after the opening four furlongs; in routes, it’s everything after the opening six furlongs.
The power of Brisnet Late Pace ratings was on display during the recently concluded 2022 Breeders’ Cup week at Keeneland. In U.S. dirt racing, the broad tendency is for horses to run fastest at the start and decelerate the farther they run. When a horse shows the ability to finish uncommonly fast, it’s reflected with a strong Brisnet Late Pace rating. Triple-digit numbers are noteworthy, and those exceeding the 110 plateau warrant special attention.
Often the strongest Late Pace ratings are earned when a horse runs slowly during the early stages of a race; it’s easier to put up a 110+ Late Pace rating when your E1 and E2 ratings are down in the 50s or 60s. It’s rare to see a horse put up triple-digit numbers in all of the E1, E2, and Late Pace categories; that’s the mark of an exceptional performance.
That’s why handicappers had to be excited to see the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances for the 1 5/8-mile Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2), one of the Breeders’ Cup Friday undercard races. The co-fastest entrant in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings was the 15-1 longshot Next, exiting a jaw-dropping victory in the 1 1/2-mile Cape Henlopen S. at Delaware Park.
The Cape Henlopen marked Next’s first start running farther than 1 1/8 miles, and the four-year-old gelding had clearly relished the change. By tracking the pace over a wet fast track, Next earned a 101 E1 Pace rating, a 103 E2 Pace Rating, a massive 119 Late Pace rating, and a 113 Speed rating.
This monumental performance was reflected by the clock: Next ran the final quarter-mile of the Cape Henlopen in :23.54, a phenomenal finishing fraction for a 1 1/2-mile dirt race. Ultimately, Next won the Cape Henlopen by 18 1/4 lengths in the track-record time of 2:30.25.
None of Next’s rivals in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance could boast a similar performance in their last 10 starts. The only horse with a higher Late Pace rating than Next was Sheriff Brown, in a race more than one year earlier where he posted E1 and E2 Pace ratings of 58 and 52 on his way to a Late Pace rating of 121.
So what happened in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance? Next got out in front and never looked back, cruising to a 6 1/4-length victory over the accomplished long-distance dirt racer Heywoods Beach. Next received more wagering support than his morning line odds suggested, but he still started at enticing 5-1 odds. Bettors who followed our TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup undercard spot plays hit a nice win bet and exacta, turning $50 into $407.53 betting the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance.
That’s the power of Brisnet Late Pace ratings.