How Keeler Johnson is betting the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Planning my Kentucky Derby (G1) bets feels refreshingly straightforward this year, because I’m confident #8 Journalism (3-1) will deliver a victory under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs.

Having confidence simplifies my ticket assembly process. I won’t try to hedge and cover the possibility of Journalism losing—I’ll go all-in and key him on top of all my tickets while using a mix of logical contenders and longshots underneath.

Here’s how my betting strategy breaks down on a ~$200 budget:

2025 Kentucky Derby: wagers

• $100 to win on #8 Journalism
• $3.50 Trifecta: 8 with 18 with 1,3,7,17,21 ($17.50)
• $3 Trifecta: 8 with 1,3,7,17,21 with 18 ($15)
• $2 Trifecta: 8 with 1,3,7,17,21 with 1,3,7,17,21 ($40)
• $1 Trifecta: 8 with 18 with 9,11,16,19 ($4)
• $1 Trifecta: 8 with 9,11,16,19 with 18 ($4)
• 50-cent Trifecta: 8 with 1,3,7,17,21 with 9,11,16,19 ($10)
• 50-cent Trifecta: 8 with 9,11,16,19 with 1,3,7,17,21 ($10)
  Total: $200.50

Journalism is unbeaten racing around two turns and exits victories in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), for which he earned improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 104 and 108. He ran into traffic trouble at a key moment in the Santa Anita Derby, but nevertheless re-rallied to prevail. He’s trained strongly for the Kentucky Derby and has landed a perfect post draw, so I find it difficult to make a case against Journalism.

Before diving into exotics, I want to set aside half my budget for a simple win bet on Journalism. At the time of this writing, with over $1.4 million in the win pool, Journalism is favored at 7-2 odds. Last week, I opined that Journalism is a fair price at 5-2, before the scratches of #4 Rodriguez (12-1) and #10 Grande (20-1). If Journalism wins, but my exotic wagers don’t pan out, I want those 7-2 win odds to guarantee a profit on my overall investment.

Otherwise, I’ll focus on attacking the trifecta. Underneath Journalism, I’ll emphasize #18 Sovereignty (5-1), winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a fast-finishing runner-up in the Florida Derby (G1). At Churchill Downs last fall, Sovereignty unleashed an eye-catching late rally to win the Street Sense (G3) by five lengths over fellow Kentucky Derby contenders #14 Tiztastic (20-1) and #17 Sandman (6-1). This Kentucky Derby field has plenty of speed, so Sovereignty should receive an ideal setup to pass horses around the far turn and down the homestretch to nab a top-three finish.

Other horses I’ll use prominently are Sandman, #1 Citizen Bull (20-1), #3 Final Gambit (30-1), #7 Luxor Cafe (15-1), and #21 Baeza (12-1).

I’ll also play some smaller tickets using #9 Burnham Square (12-1), #11 Flying Mohawk (30-1), #16 Coal Battle (30-1), and #19 Chunk of Gold (30-1). I have some concerns about their chances—the switch to dirt for Flying Mohawk, the 1 1/4-mile distance for Coal Battle, etc.—but I can also envision scenarios where everything falls into place and one of these four cracks into the trifecta.

Good luck!

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