Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Emerging Market runs fast at Tampa

Is Emerging Market an emerging 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender? He certainly looked like one when battling to victory in a Saturday maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs.

With only one race under his belt, Emerging Market will have to embark on an ambitious campaign to qualify for a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. But 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify didn’t debut until Feb. 18, so there’s an example for Emerging Market to follow, and he can’t be counted out of the mix.

Emerging Market

Purchased for the modest sum of $185,000 as a yearling, Emerging Market kicked off his career in a one-mile and 40-yard maiden special weight. Facing eight rivals, the son of Candy Ride started as the 3-1 third choice and outran expectations in a big way.

With two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat in the saddle, Emerging Market rated as many as four lengths behind early fractions of :23.71 and :47.60. Then he unleashed a sharp move around the far turn to reach contention. Down the homestretch, he engaged with fellow first-time starter Powershift in a fierce battle that included some bumping, ultimately edging ahead to win by three-quarters of a length in the fast time of 1:39.11.

Powershift, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, pulled 13 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher, so the top two both ran strongly. In fact, Powershift can’t be counted out of the Kentucky Derby picture either. The race featured strong closing fractions, with the fourth quarter-mile elapsing in :24.23, and the quick final time suggests Emerging Market might have won the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. later in the afternoon, if he’d participated in that Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier.

Top Level

Another notable maiden winner last week, albeit over a much shorter distance, was Top Level.

An $80,000 yearling acquisition trained by Mark Casse, Top Level failed to threaten in his Dec. 26 debut at Gulfstream Park, finishing seventh in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on turf. His second start came on Friday in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park, and the changes in surface and distance triggered a bit step forward.

Top Level failed to show early speed at Oaklawn, dropping into the back half of a 10-horse field through quick fractions of :21.81 and :45.57. But as the pace decelerated in the homestretch, Top Level gobbled up ground, ultimately forging clear to win by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:11.01.

The Oaklawn main track wasn’t playing especially fast on Friday. Older fillies and mares required 1:10.82 to win the six-furlong Bugler S. Top Level’s time wasn’t much slower, suggesting he’s a promising young talent.

Easterly

Easterly, a stoutly bred son of Uncle Mo out of the Tiznow mare Dakota Wind, relished stretching out around two turns for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Runner-up in his debut racing a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, Easterly proved clearly best in his second try for trainer Brad Cox. He settled no more than 1 1/2 lengths behind splits of :23.36 and :48.53 before taking over to win by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:46.52.

Unwritten Rule

As a son of Justify out of the Curlin mare Jewish Guilt, Unwritten Rule is bred to shine over classic distances. Yet he showed sufficient speed to win his debut in an off-the-turf maiden special weight on Thursday at Tampa Bay Downs.

Unwritten Rule stayed close to an opening quarter-mile in :22.44 before battling to lead through half a mile in :45.92. He then kicked clear through a final furlong in :12.21 to score by two lengths in :58.13. Look for this Thomas Proctor trainee to improve if he stretches out in distance down the road.

High Camp

Another notable winner sprinting at Gulfstream last week was High Camp, who prevailed in a seven-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday.

Second in his debut sprinting six furlongs over the same track and class level, High Camp took a nice step forward in his second start for trainer William Walden. The son of Instagrand settled one to two lengths behind splits of :23.27, :46.74, and 1:12.24 before taking over in the final furlong to win by one length in 1:25.03.

Crupper

Crupper failed to win his first three starts, but his fourth try—in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Friday at Oaklawn—yielded a breakthrough triumph.

The Donnie Von Hemel trainee tracked fractions of :23.36, :47.45, and 1:12.54 before taking over to score by three-quarters of a length in 1:46.91. His time was a bit slow compared to the 1:44.85 clocked by Silent Tactic winning the Southwest (G3) on the same afternoon, but Crupper is progressing in the right direction and may still have more upside.

Hulkamania

We’ll wrap with a mention of Hulkamania, a first-time starter who dominated a seven-furlong maiden special weight on Sunday at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Whit Beckman trainee settled behind fractions of :23.17 and :46.16 before charging ahead in the homestretch to win by four lengths in 1:24.58. A son of McKinzie, Hulkamania may have upside for the future.

Top maiden winner of the week: Emerging Market

Honorable mention: Top Level