Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Pavlovian

After launching a tenacious late charge to win the Sunland Park Derby by a nose, Pavlovian has emerged as a candidate for the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Pavlovian seeks to become the third Kentucky Derby winner owned by Reddam Racing and trained by Doug O’Neill, following I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016). But whereas those two Derby heroes were auction acquisitions, Pavlovian is a Reddam Racing homebred.

Pavlovian’s sire is Pavel, one of the best horses to campaign for Reddam Racing and O’Neill. He emerged as a three-year-old during the summer of 2017 and quickly rose to prominence, winning the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones (G3) and finishing third against older rivals in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

Pavel peaked at age four and reiterated his prowess as a route racer with a 3 3/4-length triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster H. (G1) and a runner-up effort in the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic (G1).

The sources of Pavel’s stamina are easy to find. His sire, Creative Cause, won the 1 1/16-mile Norfolk (G1) and recorded top-three finishes in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1) and 1 3/16-mile Preakness (G1). Plus, Pavel’s dam—the unraced mare Mons Venus—is a daughter of Maria’s Mon, the sire of Kentucky Derby winners Monarchos (2001) and Super Saver (2010).

At stud, Pavel has found only modest success, and his progeny have compiled a speed-oriented average winning distance of 6.1 furlongs. However, the best of Pavel’s runners have achieved their signature wins running long. In addition to Pavlovian, Pavel is the sire of Madison Rae, who won the one-mile Soviet Problem S.

Pavlovian’s dam is another Reddam Racing colorbearer, Mandy’s Grace. Under O’Neill’s tutelage, Mandy’s Grace raced three times and showed some stamina when breaking her maiden by four lengths in a one-mile $30,000 maiden claimer at Oaklawn Park. Prior to Pavlovian, she foaled O Mandy (winner of a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight) and Coralgableskaylin (a two-time winner sprinting five furlongs and seven furlongs).

Mandy’s Grace is a daughter of Bellamy Road, who famously won the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G1) by 17 1/2 lengths in a stellar performance. He could only finish seventh as the favorite in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, but he bounced back during the summer to run second in the 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1).

At stud, Bellamy Road sired a handful of high-class runners. His best son, Diversify, proved effective over the Kentucky Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (with Pavel among his beaten rivals) and the Suburban (G2). He also conquered the 1 1/8-mile Whitney (G1).

Other accomplished horses sired by Bellamy Road include Toby’s Corner, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial; Land Over Sea, conqueror of the 1 1/16-mile Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and runner-up in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1) and 1 1/16-mile Chandelier (G1); Constellation, winner of the seven-furlong La Brea (G1) and runner-up in the seven-furlong Madison (G1); All Squared Away, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G3) and runner-up in a trio of Grade 2 stakes over distances from 1 1/4 miles to 1 3/4 miles; and Sisterly Love, winner of the Doubledogdare (G3) and Ontario Matron (G3) racing 1 1/16 miles.

Daughters of Bellamy Road have produced a mix of sprinters and route racers. Case Creed won two editions of the one-mile Fourstardave H. (G1), but also scored over six furlongs in the Jaipur (G1). Deep Monster won the Tokyo Daishoten (G2) and H.H. The Amir Trophy (G1) racing 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles). Bright Future battled to victory in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup. Cave Rock scored in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1) and 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1). Booth took the Maryland Sprint (G3) and Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3), dashing six furlongs, and Musical Mischief nabbed the 1 1/16-mile Locust Grove (G2).

Overall, there’s a mix of speed and stamina in the pedigree of Pavlovian. That blend is often a recipe for success in the Kentucky Derby. There’s a good chance Pavlovian will find the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance within his wheelhouse.