Official 2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide: Top Horses, Best Picks & Expert Analysis

Kentucky Derby Betting Tickets

• $40 win and place #6 Commandment 
• $10 Exacta: key box 6 with 1,8,12,19 
• $1 Trifecta: 1,6,12 with 1,6,8,12,19 with 1,6,8,9,12,14,15,18,19 

Kentucky Derby Picks from Keeler Johnson:

Race 11: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) (1 1/8 miles on turf)

This competitive grass contest looks wide-open on paper. We’ll spread deep with Jockey Club Derby (G2) conqueror #3 Asbury Park (8-1), Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) winner #6 Rhetorical (5-2), Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) hero #9 Test Score (7-2), and Dubai Turf (G1) fourth-place finisher #10 Make Me King (6-1).

Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1) (1 1/4 miles on dirt)

In a deep edition of the Kentucky Derby, we’ll use five horses: Florida Derby (G1) 1-2-3 finishers #6 Commandment (6-1), #9 The Puma (10-1), and #12 Chief Wallabee (8-1), impressive Arkansas Derby (G1) hero #1 Renegade (4-1), and the undefeated Japanese raider #7 Danon Bourbon (20-1). All have shown talent and strong finishing speed, suggesting they can perform well over the Derby’s testing 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kentucky Derby Picks from John Mucciolo:

The Cherie DeVaux-trained #19 Golden Tempo (30-1) has progressed nicely in his young career and could be sitting on a huge performance in Louisville with regular pilot Jose Ortiz in the silks. The son of Curlin was super impressive in his unveiling when producing a last-to-first move en route to a victory in a six-furlong dash at Fair Grounds on Dec. 20.

Quick Kentucky Derby Analysis Summaries

#1 RENEGADE (4-1): Powerful son of Into Mischief was visually excellent when dusting his foes in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park in advance of his initial run beneath the Twin Spires. The colt has a robust turn of foot and appears to be coming up to a peak effort in his third run of the season, as well. Irad Ortiz, who has piloted numerous contenders in the race in the past, opts to guide the morning-line favorite from the tricky rail slot. The colt will be formidable if he has clear sailing in the stretch. 

#2 ALBUS (30-1): Riley Mott trainee has improved his Brisnet Speed rating in each lifetime run to date and comes off a late-running score in the Wood Memorial (G2) most recently. The Pin Oak colorbearer is obviously on the improve, and he does possess a nice turn of foot, so the son of Yaupon could make some noise in the latter stages of the tilt with Manny Franco on board. 

#3 INTREPIDO (50-1): Jeff Mullins pupil earned his biggest win to date when taking the 2025 American Pharoah (G1). The son of Maximus Mischief faltered in the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his latest, and will need a big step forward to challenge for a share against this group, with Hector Berrios signed on for the voyage. 

#4 LITMUS TEST (30-1): Baffert trainee has been outrun in a pair of outings in 2026, including a seventh-place result in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his most recent run. The Grade-2 winning son of Nyquist will have the blinkers back on in the Derby, but he is hard to back with confidence in his current form cycle. Martin Garcia will have the talented colt involved from the break on Saturday. 

#6 COMMANDMENT (6-1): Florida Derby (G1) star comes to Louisville on a four-race win streak and will likely be among the favorites at post time for Brad Cox. The $500,000 yearling purchase has earned Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 104 and 121 in his pair of two-turn races to date, and the son of Into Mischief was also a big maiden winner in his lone prior run beneath the Twin Spires, as well. Luis Saez will guide the powerful colt, who is my top pick in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. 

#7 DANON BOURBON (20-1): Unbeaten Kentucky-bred romped in the Fukuryu S. in his latest venture and comes in with a perfect three-for-three mark in advance of his U. S. debut. The Manabu Ikezoe trainee is bred to handle the distance and has room for improvement with just three lifetime showings to date. Atsuya Nishimura will be in the silks atop the wildcard. 

#8 SO HAPPY (15-1): Mark Glatt charge was a sharp winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his most recent effort and will be a contender with even slight improvement off of that coup. The Kentucky-bred son of Runhappy is three-for-four with a third in his career, and he answered the 1 1/8-mile question last time, as well. The bay has excellent tactical speed and wouldn’t be a surprise with Mike Smith staying on board. 

#9 THE PUMA (10-1): Gustavo Delgado pupil rallied to take the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) two races back and checked in a very close second in the Florida Derby most recently. The chestnut son of Essential Quality has knocked heads with some of the best sophomores in training all season long and deserves a lot of attention in the contest. Javier Castellano will take the reins. 

#10 WONDER DEAN (30-1): Japanese-bred grandson of Deep Impact put in a fine stretch run to collar a clear one in his UAE Derby (G2) tally most recently. The dark bay colt has run well in his four races at nine furlongs or longer, and the import could be any kind in his initial run in the U.S. The Takayanagi pupil will have Ryusei Sakai in the silks. 

#11 INCREDIBOLT (20-1): Virginia Derby star bagged the Street Sense (G3) on the course as a juvenile and will make his third run of the year for Riley Mott. The son of Bolt d’Oro looks to be a cut below the big guns in the group, but he did thrive in his first run at nine panels last time, and the added distance could be to his benefit on Saturday, too. Regular pilot Jaime Torres will be in the silks once again. 

#12 CHIEF WALLABEE (8-1): Constitution homebred was a flashy debut winner on Jan. 10 and has run big while close in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby as of late. Trained by Bill Mott, the talented colt will be equipped with blinkers for the initial time in the Derby, and if the equipment change moves him forward, then the bay will be a major player inside the final furlong beneath regular pilot Junior Alvarado. 

#14 POTENTE (20-1): The $2.4 million yearling purchase dueled on the front end and stayed on well in the lane when a clear runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby for Bob Baffert. The San Felipe (G2) victor has improved with each run to date and will likely do so again for a barn that has endured so much success with six winners in the race to date. The Into Mischief colt is training well and has a lot of top-four appeal with Juan Hernandez in the irons. 

#15 EMERGING MARKET (15-1): Chad Brown pupil is two-for-two in his career, led by a game victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his most recent performance. The chestnut son of Candy Ride is short on experience but long on talent, and he has reportedly been working well leading up to his third lifetime appearance, too. The Klaravich color bearer is expected to rally from off the pace with Flavien Prat retaining the ride. 

#16 PAVLOVIAN (30-1): California-bred son of Pavel is peaking at the right time for two-time Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill. The Reddam homebred has good early speed in a field lacking an abundance of pace, and the gray figures to be forcing the tempo from the break if he gets away cleanly from the gate in his local debut. Edwin Maldonado will be in the silks once again. 

#17 SIX SPEED (50-1): Fleet son of Not This Time was clear in second after dictating the tempo in the UAE Derby (G2) in preparation for his stateside debut. The Kentucky-bred colt had won a trio of races in succession prior to his latest outing at Meydan, and the colt will be forwardly placed from the break beneath Brian Hernandez, Jr. for conditioner Bhupat Seemar. 

#18 FURTHER ADO (6-1): Blue Grass (G1) romper is a Grade 2 winner over the Churchill Downs strip and could peak while making his third run of the season. The Gun Runner sophomore has progressed steadily since stretching out in distance, and the $550,000 purchase has to be considered one of the major contenders in the cast beneath the ageless John Velazquez. 

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO (30-1): Cherie DeVaux trainee earned his biggest win of the season in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, and the talented late runner was last seen rallying to be a close third in the Louisiana Derby. The homebred son of Curlin has upped his Brisnet Speed rating in every lifetime run to date and will be a late factor with continued ascension, with Jose Ortiz retaining the ride. 

#21 GREAT WHITE (50-1): Looks to rebound after a disappointing effort in his first dirt try in the Blue Grass. The John Ennis trainee is a huge son of Volatile, but will need to improve substantially to compete with the more accomplished three-year-olds in this field. His career-best Brisnet Speed Rating of 92 is far below that of many other competitors.      

#22 OCELLI (50-1): The lone maiden in the field, the Connect colt finished third in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his final prep, but would have to improve several lengths to make any serious win threat against a salty group that looks far superior in class and speed figures.   

#23 ROBUSTA (50-1): Is trained by Doug O'Neill, who won the Kentucky Derby twice with I'll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016). The son of Accelerate flashed speed and tired to seventh in his final prep in the Santa Anita Derby, but was a sharp runner-up in the San Felipe two back. He has good positional speed, but will need to work out a perfect trip from the far outside to have any chance of producing the huge upset.