Longshots to play in Woodbine's $76,463 Pick 5 carryover

September 10th, 2022

Care to chase a hefty, non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover on Saturday? Then you’re advised to check out the action at Woodbine, where the 20-cent Early Pick 5 boasts a C$100,167 (US$76,463) prize pool.

The sequence kicks off in Race 2 (post time 1:29 p.m. ET), which happens to rank among the most intriguing of the five races. The event in question is a $40,000 maiden optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs over the inner turf course,

Seven horses have been entered, with #5 Sacred Dancer (2-1) and #3 Sweet Bombolini (5-2) looming as logical contenders. Sacred Dancer has cracked the trifecta in five of her six starts at this class level, but all of those runs came over the Woodbine Tapeta track, so switching surfaces is a question mark. In contrast, Sweet Bombolini boasts turf experience, but has missed the trifecta in all three of her starts this season (including two at the $40,000 maiden optional claiming level).

So why not take a shot with #6 Indian Music (6-1) as a midrange longshot? She’s only run twice, finishing seventh in a maiden special weight over the Woodbine Tapeta before switching to grass for the five-furlong Georgian Bay S. In the latter race, Indian Music carved out a quick opening quarter-mile in :21.25 before weakening to finish sixth by 4 1/2 lengths. The 76 Brisnet Speed rating she posted stacks up well against Sacred Dancer and Sweet Bombolini, so Indian Music has upside for an upset while dropping in class.

Another opportunity to play a live longshot (or three) comes in Race 5, a $40,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. #10 Delilah’s Revenge (3-1) is the morning line favorite after finishing second in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Woodbine, and #7 Society’s Kat (7-2)—runner-up in her debut over this track and class level—also figures to start at a short price while dropping in class out of a stakes.

But the field contains several first-time starters with the potential to outrun expectations at enticing odds. Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has gone 5-for-12 (42%) debuting juveniles over the Woodbine Tapeta this year, which bodes well for Casse’s unraced youngsters #1 Sunshine Girl (10-1) and #3 I’m Phantom (8-1). Of the pair, we might give a slight edge to Sunshine Girl. She’s a daughter of Frac Daddy (who sires 16% winners from first-time starters), and jockey Sahin Civaci (a 27% winner teaming up with Casse over the last two months) is named to ride.

We can’t overlook #9 A Touch of Red (6-1) either. Trainer Sid Attard has gone 2-for-6 (33%) debuting juveniles at Woodbine this year, and A Touch of Red has put together a flashy work tab highlighted by a quick half-mile in :47 3/5.

If we can get one or two of these longshots home on top in the Pick 5, we’ll be well on our way to a profitable payday. Good luck!