Los Alamitos: How to play the favorites in the Bayakoa

Making significant money betting favorites can be a challenge. But that’s the task we’ll have to tackle when Los Alamitos hosts the $100,000 Bayakoa (G3) on Sunday.

Just six horses have been entered in the 1 1/16-mile event, and the expected favorites are formidable. For starters, there’s #6 Proud Emma, who finished in a dead heat for victory in the 1-mile Tranquility Lake S. at Del Mar during the summer. The Peter Miller trainee subsequently ran fourth in a quality renewal of the Zenyatta (G2) before transitioning to turf for the Kathryn Crosby S., where she trailed throughout over a surface she clearly doesn’t care for. Returning to dirt can trigger a rebound with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the saddle.

#5 Message, the other winner of the Tranquility Lake, also warrants respect. A speedy front-runner, Message hasn’t run since August, but she’s shown steady improvement under the care of hot trainer Bob Baffert and picks up high-percentage jockey Flavien Prat for her return from a three-month layoff.

But my preferred choice is #4 Stellar Sound, a former Baffert trainee who placed third in the Las Virgenes (G2) during the winter. In her debut for trainer Michael McCarthy, Stellar Sound dominated a 1-mile allowance race at Santa Anita on Oct. 2, tracking the pace before powering clear to win by seven lengths in her first start off an eight-month break.

Stellar Sound was entered to race against males in the Native Diver (G3) last month, but was scratched to await the Bayakoa instead. With her tactical speed and encouraging comeback run, the Don Alberto Stable homebred figures to be a serious factor in her return to graded stakes company.

While it’s tempting to box the favorites in the trifecta, such a strategy is unlikely to yield an enticing return on investment. Instead, we’ll key Stellar Sound on top of all our tickets, emphasizing Message and Proud Emma while tossing in #1 Miss Stormy D for good measure. The 4-year-old daughter of Tapizar hasn’t run since wiring a Feb. 29 allowance race at Santa Anita by 6 1/4 lengths, but she’s trained sharply for her return and can vie for a spot in the top three.

$5 trifecta: 4 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6 ($30)

Good luck!