Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $497,093 Pick 6 mandatory payout

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Feb. 16 at Oaklawn Park and Fair Grounds, along with a ticket for the mandatory-payout $497,093 Pick 6 carryover at Turf Paradise.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Profit Boost Woodbine Mohawk: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk every Monday in February.
• Double Rewards Points at Miami Valley: Receive double rewards points on all wagers at Miami Valley each racing Sunday through Wednesday in February.
• 25% Odds Boost at Fair Grounds: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Fair Grounds on Monday, Feb. 16 and Tuesday, Feb. 17.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $160 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/1 Rebel KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Oaklawn Challenge
• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 2/21 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Oaklawn Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Quick to Charm (2-1) has cracked the trifecta in five of his six starts sprinting against maiden special weight competition. Four of those efforts came last year in Kentucky, including a neck defeat at Keeneland.

If you draw a line through Quick to Charm’s season finale—in which she stretched out over one mile and finished fifth—her form is solid. Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has been on fire at Oaklawn this winter, going 18-for-40 (45%), so we’ll count on Quick to Charm to shine while cutting back in distance for her 2026 debut.

#6 Love Supreme (5-2) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Quick to Charm (2-1)
• #6 Love Supreme (5-2)
• #1 River Wind (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Quick to Charm
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 6
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Tan Chulo (3-1) may have chased too hot of a pace when debuting over this course, distance, and class level on Dec. 27, as he weakened down the homestretch to finish fifth by 3 1/4 lengths. In his second start over the same conditions, Tan Chulo pressed a more relaxed pace before battling on to finish second by a half a length.

There isn’t an overabundance of speed entered in Monday’s field, so Tan Chulo may receive exactly the right trip she needs to visit the winner’s circle in her third start.

#6 Soulman (7-2) and #4 Chasing Freedom (4-1) can battle for a spot in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Tan Chulo (3-1)
• #6 Soulman (7-2)
• #4 Chasing Freedom (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 4,6 ($20)

Oaklawn Park: Race 9: Ozark S. (six furlongs on dirt, 5:42 p.m. ET)

#8 Ewing (6-5) went 2-for-2 as a juvenile. He dominated his debut at Saratoga by a dozen lengths, then led all the way to win the Saratoga Special (G2) by one length over Obliteration, who recently finished second in the Saudi Derby (G3).

Ewing has turned in an encouraging series of workouts in preparation for his sophomore debut and looks ready to pick up where he left off for trainer Mark Casse.

#1 Dirty Rich (8-1), winner of the Advent S. at Oaklawn Park in December, can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Ewing (6-5)
• #1 Dirty Rich (8-1)
• #4 Swung (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 8 with 1

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $497,093 Pick 6 mandatory payout (4:10 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Turf Paradise brings the mandatory payout of a massive $497,093 carryover in the 20-cent Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot.

We’ll pursue the prize pool with a ticket costing under $100:

Wager

• 20-cent Pick 6: 1,4 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,6,7 with 2,4,6 with 1,8 with 3,4,10 ($86.40)

Race 3: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

#4 Mo’o Lio (3-1) earned a field-best 76 Brisnet Speed rating when taking a $15,000-$12,500 maiden claimer at Turf Paradise by 2 3/4 lengths. But don’t underestimate #1 Run as One (9-2) who is dropping in class after competing in a couple of stakes last year. She’s racing on Lasix for the first time, and that’s a 67% winning move for trainer Marvin Buffalo.

Race 4: $15,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on turf)

#2 Expressive Love (5-2) ran well when second over this course, distance, and class level two starts back. But she faded to eighth after chasing a hot pace in her latest start. California raider #5 Interplay (9-2) may have a shot to upset even though she’s yet to win a race, and #7 Dutton Street Girl (7-2)—a trifecta finisher in each of her last five starts—could score if Expressive Love misfires.

Race 5: $8,500 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

This isn’t the strongest field on paper. #7 Im Gunna (3-1), runner-up over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 24, is a logical contender. So too is California raider #6 Sark (4-1). #2 Booming Bernardo (5-1) is fast enough to win this on his best day, and don’t dismiss #1 Urban Justic (5-1), who is dropping in class.

Race 6: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on dirt)

#2 Pick It Up (9-2) earned a field-best 68 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing third in a one-mile $32,000 maiden claimer at Del Mar. Facing easier competition at Turf Paradise should put her in win contention. Fellow Californian #6 Smokeintheair (5-2) has a chance too, and #4 Dormello’s Legacy (7-2) isn’t out of the mix after finishing third in a one-mile $25,000 claimer at Turf Paradise.

Race 7: $6,250 Claiming (one mile on dirt)

#8 Mr Fabricator (5-2) is a picture of consistency, and he brings a sharp series of Brisnet Speed ratings into this race. The only runner who looks fast enough to challenge is #1 Logical Myth (3-1), so we’ll limit our ticket to these two.

Race 8: $8,500 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

#10 Strawberry Zinger (7-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in six starts and looks like a great fit for the Pick 6 finale. But she’s certainly not a Brisnet Speed rating standout. #3 Max’s Maxine (3-1) and #4 Miss Sundaze (9-2) are dropping in class, and both are fast enough to challenge.

Good luck!