Pace could aid Japan’s T O Elvis in Churchill Downs Stakes

The Churchill Downs (G1), a seven-furlong sprint held on the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard at Churchill Downs, has an international flavor this year.

The 11-horse field includes #8 T O Elvis (30-1), a red-hot four-year-old shipping in from Japan for trainer Daisuke Takayanagi. T O Elvis is one of three Japan-based horses competing at Churchill this week; stablemate Wonder Dean and the undefeated Danon Bourbon are entered in the Kentucky Derby.

RELATED: International Scouting Report: T O Elvis

A longshot with promising credentials

By 2025, at the age of three, T O Elvis had developed into a promising sprinter. Between March and December, he rattled off four straight wins, dashing 1,200 meters (about six furlongs). Three of them came at the allowance level, but T O Elvis ended the year with a five-length demolition of the Capella (G3). In the Capella, he blazed his final 600 meters (about three furlongs) in :34.8—the fastest closing split in the field by a full second—to rally from 10th place and win going away.

T O Elvis hasn’t raced since, so the Churchill Downs marks his return from a 4 1/2-month layoff. He’s a 30-1 longshot on the morning line, but his hot form shouldn’t be underestimated, especially since Takayanagi has a history of sending longshots to compete with aplomb at Churchill Downs.

Following a path blazed by T O Saint Denis, T O Password

In 2024, Takayanagi sent two horses from Japan to race at Churchill Downs. Both were longshots, and both exceeded expectations.

In the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba (G2), Takayanagi’s T O Saint Denis started as a 27-1 longshot. T O Saint Denis hadn’t won a race in over a year, and he arrived at Churchill off back-to-back 13th-place finishes in allowance races. Nevertheless, T O Saint Denis opened up a large early lead in the Alysheba and stayed on to finish second behind even-money favorite First Mission, triggering a hefty $2 exacta payoff of $108.68.

The following day, Takayanagi’s second starter—T O Password—went off at 48-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby. Few bettors expected the unheralded Fukuryu winner to factor, yet T O Password unleashed a big rally from 18th place to finish fifth, rounding out a $1 Super High 5 that paid $316,920.10.

A chance to factor in a deep Churchill Downs field

The 2026 Churchill Downs has drawn a strong group of horses. #6 Knightsbridge (9-5) has won four starts in a row, including a trio of Grade 3 stakes by blowout margins. #2 Cornucopian (7-2) recently nabbed the seven-furlong San Carlos (G3) in the blazing time of 1:20.71. And Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) winner #7 Imagination (6-1) finished second in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

But the field is also packed with pace. Knightsbridge likes to race forwardly. So does Cornucopian. Carter (G2) winner #11 Point Dume (15-1) is a pure pacesetter. #3 Macho Music (30-1) has carved out the tempo in four of his last five starts, and #1 Disco Time (6-1) is rarely far off the pace.

All this pace could play to the strengths of T O Elvis. He’s a late runner with a powerful closing kick, as he demonstrated in the Capella. If you’re betting exotic wagers, don’t leave T O Elvis off your tickets. Given all the positives in his corner, there’s a chance T O Elvis will crack the trifecta or superfecta at enticing odds—and he might even win.