Player Quick Pick: Woodbine for 4/13/2014
by Ryan Dickey
We start the Derby Countdown with a Woodbine contest, so check it out by clicking the picture below...
We start the Derby Countdown with a Woodbine contest, so check it out by clicking the picture below...
Woodbine 8 | 4:37 pm ET
Jacques Cartier Stakes for 4&up going 6f (A)
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 5-Sharp Sensation
Although he is only making his fourth career start since November of 2012 (he had eleven months off between his debut win and his first allowance race), and first since last December, Sharp Sensation can win this race. Reade Baker has been training this horse very well at Keeneland, along with another Baker charge Go Blue Or Go Home, who was cross-entered in this race and the G3 Shakertown Stakes yesterday in Lexington. He’s trying a stakes race for the first time, but has won 2 of 3 starts at Woodbine,a dn 1 of 2 at the distance. He’s listed as a 4-1 morning line shot, but expect him to be around 5-2. Use him on top of exotics and in multi-race bets.
VALUE HORSE: 7-Really Sharp
Yes, we’ll be going “Sharp/Sharp” here, but at 20-1 Really Sharp has serious value at 20-1 on the morning line. He may not be as classy as some of the other contenders, but used to race in G2 and G3 races as a two-year old. He’s coming from Gulfsteam Park where he placed in allowance company on March 22. He’s won at Woodbine before. Worth a shot in exotics, and as a second-tier choice in multi-race bets.
Paso Doble is a solid stakes race horse who has been in contention in eight of his last nine races. He should also be in the hunt today, which makes him useable in exotics and as another second-tier play in multi-race bets.
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $5 WIN 5 ($5) $2 Exacta 5 over 4,7,9 ($6) $1 Trifecta 5 over 4,7,9 over 4,7,9 ($6) $3 PLACE 7 ($3--total $20)
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $10 WIN/PLACE 5 ($20) $2 Exacta box 4,5,7,9 ($24) $1 Trifecta 5 over 4,7,9 over 4,7,9 ($6--total $50)
MULTI-RACE BETS WOODBINE Race 8 $1 Pick-3 5 with 6 with ALL ($10)
Woodbine 9 | 5:08 pm ET Maiden Claiming (20-19) for 3 yo going 5f (A)
Trying to beat a morning line favorite coupled entry with the second choice in a race that leaves much to be desired.
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 1-Secure the Door and 1A-I’m Good With It
Yes, there’s a good chance that the William Tharrenos coupled entry may win this race between 7 (6 betting interests) maiden claimer three year olds. The #1 Secure the door had a race that you can simply draw a line through last out, but if returns to form which afforded him two places and two shows in 6 career starts--all at Woodbine. It would be more surprising if the #1A I’m Good With It won. We’ll bet against.
VALUE HORSE: 6-Tu Avez
With the coupled entry #1 and #1A being the 8-5 favorite, there’s some value with the #6 Tu Avez, who’s the pick to break his maiden today. Although he’s been on the shelf since December, this horse has been working well at Woodbine. All five of his previous races have been here, and he boasts two 2nd-place finishes including one last October where he finished ahead of Secure the Door. Play to win. Back-up with a place bet. Play on top of exotics. A play in multi-race bets.
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $8 WIN/PLACE 6 ($16) $2 Exacta box 1,6 ($--total $20)
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $20 WIN/PLACE 6 ($40) $5 Exacta box 1,6 ($10--total $50)
MULTI-RACE BETS WOODBINE Race 8 $1 Pick-3 5 with 6 with ALL ($10) WOODBINE Race 9 $2 Daily Double 6 with ALL ($20)
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 5-Sharp Sensation
Although he is only making his fourth career start since November of 2012 (he had eleven months off between his debut win and his first allowance race), and first since last December, Sharp Sensation can win this race. Reade Baker has been training this horse very well at Keeneland, along with another Baker charge Go Blue Or Go Home, who was cross-entered in this race and the G3 Shakertown Stakes yesterday in Lexington. He’s trying a stakes race for the first time, but has won 2 of 3 starts at Woodbine,a dn 1 of 2 at the distance. He’s listed as a 4-1 morning line shot, but expect him to be around 5-2. Use him on top of exotics and in multi-race bets.
VALUE HORSE: 7-Really Sharp
Yes, we’ll be going “Sharp/Sharp” here, but at 20-1 Really Sharp has serious value at 20-1 on the morning line. He may not be as classy as some of the other contenders, but used to race in G2 and G3 races as a two-year old. He’s coming from Gulfsteam Park where he placed in allowance company on March 22. He’s won at Woodbine before. Worth a shot in exotics, and as a second-tier choice in multi-race bets.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 9-Delegation & 4- Paso Doble
Delegation is the morning line favorite and is cutting back from routing to a sprint. Trainer Mark Casse has a tremendous ROI on route-to-sprinters, as well as having overall success at Woodbine. Although he’s a deserving favorite, we should play against him.Paso Doble is a solid stakes race horse who has been in contention in eight of his last nine races. He should also be in the hunt today, which makes him useable in exotics and as another second-tier play in multi-race bets.
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $5 WIN 5 ($5) $2 Exacta 5 over 4,7,9 ($6) $1 Trifecta 5 over 4,7,9 over 4,7,9 ($6) $3 PLACE 7 ($3--total $20)
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $10 WIN/PLACE 5 ($20) $2 Exacta box 4,5,7,9 ($24) $1 Trifecta 5 over 4,7,9 over 4,7,9 ($6--total $50)
MULTI-RACE BETS WOODBINE Race 8 $1 Pick-3 5 with 6 with ALL ($10)
Woodbine 9 | 5:08 pm ET Maiden Claiming (20-19) for 3 yo going 5f (A)
Trying to beat a morning line favorite coupled entry with the second choice in a race that leaves much to be desired.
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 1-Secure the Door and 1A-I’m Good With It
Yes, there’s a good chance that the William Tharrenos coupled entry may win this race between 7 (6 betting interests) maiden claimer three year olds. The #1 Secure the door had a race that you can simply draw a line through last out, but if returns to form which afforded him two places and two shows in 6 career starts--all at Woodbine. It would be more surprising if the #1A I’m Good With It won. We’ll bet against.
VALUE HORSE: 6-Tu Avez
With the coupled entry #1 and #1A being the 8-5 favorite, there’s some value with the #6 Tu Avez, who’s the pick to break his maiden today. Although he’s been on the shelf since December, this horse has been working well at Woodbine. All five of his previous races have been here, and he boasts two 2nd-place finishes including one last October where he finished ahead of Secure the Door. Play to win. Back-up with a place bet. Play on top of exotics. A play in multi-race bets.
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $8 WIN/PLACE 6 ($16) $2 Exacta box 1,6 ($--total $20)
WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $20 WIN/PLACE 6 ($40) $5 Exacta box 1,6 ($10--total $50)
MULTI-RACE BETS WOODBINE Race 8 $1 Pick-3 5 with 6 with ALL ($10) WOODBINE Race 9 $2 Daily Double 6 with ALL ($20)
ADVERTISEMENT
