Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle stakes double

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Sept. 18 at Churchill Downs and Presque Isle Downs, including horses to play in Churchill’s $5,116 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in September.
• 15% Profit Boost Tokens at Belmont Park: Opt in to receive three 15% Profit Boost Tokens (maximum boost of $25 per token) for win wagers at Belmont Park on Friday, Sept. 18.
• $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Presque Isle Downs: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool on Friday, Sept. 18.
• $5,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Churchill Downs: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Churchill Downs for a chance to split a $5,000 prize pool each racing Friday in September.
• $2,000 Exacta Hit It & Split It at Los Alamitos: Opt in and hit two exactas at Los Alamitos for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing day in September, from Sept. 11 through Sept. 20.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $90 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 9/26 Laurel Park Autumn Challenge
• $400 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder Friday to 9/19 Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $150 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Belmont Park Challenge
• $200 Belmont Park Feeder to 9/26 Churchill Downs KFC/BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Presque Isle Downs Challenge
• $80 Presque Isle Downs Feeder to 9/25 Churchill Downs KFC/BCBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#8 Tapit Nitro (6-1) ran reasonably well in a couple of $50,000 maiden optional claimers on turf at Colonial Downs last month, recording a pair of fifth-place finishes in 10-horse fields. She was beaten by margins of only 2 1/2 lengths and 3 1/4 lengths.

Trainer Rohan Crichton wins at a 21% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, and Tapit Nitro’s pedigree suggests she may improve while switching surfaces. The fact Tapit Nitro has recorded fast workouts on dirt cements the gray filly as an appealing win contender.

Let’s place a win bet on Tapit Nitro.

Selections

• #8 Tapit Nitro (6-1)
• #11 Soccer Socks (6-1)
• #1 Cover Story (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Tapit Nitro

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:42 p.m. ET)

#3 Bossy Wossy (2-1) is unbeaten in two starts, both at Presque Isle Downs. He dominated his debut in a five-furlong maiden special weight by 12 1/4 lengths, then took a six-furlong $62,500 allowance optional claimer by 4 1/4 lengths.

We’ll count on Bossy Wossy to record a third straight win for the ultra-hot jockey/trainer duo of Israel Rodriguez and Juan Arriagada, who have gone 12-for-23 (52%) teaming up together over the last two months.

First, we’ll single Bossy Wossy to start a daily double. Then we’ll key him over #7 Boyhood Dream (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Bossy Wossy (2-1)
• #7 Boyhood Dream (3-1)
• #2 Uncle Kef (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 Double: 3 with 1
• $15 Exacta: 3 with 7
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 8: Presque Isle Mile (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 8:09 p.m. ET)

#1 Encino (8-5) boasts an excellent 8-5-2-0 record competing over synthetic tracks, which includes an unblemished 2-for-2 tally at Presque Isle Downs. He won last year’s Presque Isle Mile by 1 3/4 lengths over #3 Grounded (9-2), and he recently returned to this oval to take the Avery Whisman Memorial.

Encino has a strong chance to defend his Presque Isle Mile title, so we’ll single him to conclude our daily double, then play him over Grounded, #2 Britain’s Kitten (4-1), and #8 Neoequos (5-2) in a trifecta. 

Selections

• #1 Encino (8-5)
• #8 Neoequos (5-2)
• #3 Grounded (9-2)

Wagers

• $2.50 Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,8 with 2,3,8 ($15)

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $5,116 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Friday’s $5,116 Super High 5 carryover in Race 1 at Churchill Downs, be prepared for a stiff handicapping challenge.

Race 1 is a $20,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. The race has drawn an overflow field: 14 horses, including two on the also-eligible list. None have raced more than three times, so there isn’t a lot of form to analyze.

#10 Capodost (5-2) is the morning-line favorite, and her credentials look solid. To keep ticket costs affordable, we recommend keying Capodost on top in the Super High 5.

Conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, Capodost debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. After settling off the pace, she passed a few rivals to finish fourth with a respectable 67 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest numbers belonging to any filly entered in Race 1.

Capodost subsequently misfired in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Kentucky Downs, finishing ninth by a wide margin, but returning to dirt and dropping in class can trigger a rebound. Keep in mind, Cox wins at a powerful 30% rate with horses tackling the maiden claiming ranks for the first time.

Underneath, #2 Callie’s Dance (7-2) is a logical contender to emphasize. She’s competed exclusively against tougher competition, most notably finishing second in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. The winner, Manuka Honey, has since won the Ellis Park Debutante S. and Pocahontas (G3).

Live longshots worth using include #6 Chamita (15-1) and #11 Oro Estrella (20-1).

Chamita has only raced once on dirt, finishing third in a $40,000 maiden claimer dashing five furlongs at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She’s dropping in class out of a one-mile maiden special weight over the Kentucky Downs grass and should find Friday’s class level more manageable.

As for Oro Estrella, she debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on turf at Ellis Park, finishing ninth. Now’s she’s adding blinkers, switching to dirt, and dropping in class while picking up apprentice jockey Luke Hoskins, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance. Any of these changes could trigger improvement from Oro Estrella.

Good luck!