Sam F. Davis Deserves Derby Points

by Laura Pugh

Churchill Downs made the right decision to use a points system rather than graded stakes earnings to determine Kentucky Derby starters.

The points system encourages development in a three-year-old season because no longer are there de facto win and you’re in races for two-year-olds like the Breeders’ Cup and Delta Jackpot used to be, and it is now more difficult for a pure sprinter to qualify for the Derby.

However, there are still kinks that need to be addressed. Some feel the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile should be worth more points or that the Illinois Derby should be worth some points, and there are valid arguments on both sides of those races, but I feel is overlooked is the recently run Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Yes, many can say that Tampa Bay doesn’t always put forth the best Derby prospects, but this is a graded stakes for three-year-olds around two turns. The likes of Any Given Saturday, Rule, General Quarters, and Bluegrass Cat—all Kentucky Derby starters and eventual Grade 1 winners—came from this race. In fact, since 2005, only three winners of the Sam F Davis failed to make it to the gates of the Kentucky Derby (see chart below).

One can make the argument, that most of the horses that made it to the Derby gate failed to menace, however, that can be said for many other early-season Derby preps. Since 2005, the Holy Bull is only 5 for 10 at winning Derby starters.

Another eagerly anticipated, early season, Kentucky Derby prep is the Sham Stakes, which since 2005, only three of its winners have made it to the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among those that made it was Colonel John finishing sixth.

Both the Holy Bull and the Sham offer 17 qualifying points with 10 to the winner.

Year	Sam F.Davis Winner	Holy Bull Winner	Sham Stakes Winner	Kentucky Derby Start
2014	Vinceremos	Cairo Prince	Midnight Hawk	Yes/No/No
2013	Falling Sky	Itsmyluckyday	Out of Bounds	Yes/Yes/No
2012	Battle Hardened	Algorithms	Goldencents	No/No/Yes
2011	Brethren	Dialed In	Tapizar	No/Yes/No
2010	Rule	Winslow Homer	Alphie’s Bet	Yes/No/No
2009	General Quarters	Saratoga Sinner	The Pamplemousse	Yes/No/No
2008	Fierce Wind	Hey Byrn	Colonel John	No/No/Yes
2007	Any Given Saturday	Nobiz Like Showbiz	Ravel	Yes/Yes/No
2006	Bluegrass Cat	Barbaro	Bob and John	Yes/Yes/Yes
2005	Andromeda’s Hero	Closing Argument	Going Wild	Yes/Yes/No

As can be seen by the chart, the Holy Bull and Sam F. Davis, are nearly equal in their ability to produce Kentucky Derby starters, while the Sham struggles. Clearly, based on these stats, the runners of the Sam F. Davis deserves to be awarded with points.

Overall, I like the points system as an improvement over its predecessor, which treated all graded stakes equally regardless of distance, surface, or sex restrictions. But an improvement doesn’t mean perfection, and a return to the points schedule for the Sam F. Davis in 2016 would be a welcome enhancement.

Laura Pugh is a Delaware-based racing fan, who Derek Simon once called a "friend" on his blog