Santa Anita: Spot plays for the Malibu, La Brea, and San Antonio

The year may be winding down, but racing action at Santa Anita Park is just heating up.

The eagerly anticipated winter meet kicks off on Saturday with a spectacular 11-race card featuring half a dozen stakes races. Among the highlights are the $300,000 Malibu (G1) and the $300,000 La Brea (G1), a pair of prestigious sprints for 3-year-olds.

Meanwhile, the $200,000 San Antonio (G2) has drawn a competitive field of older runners. So what are we waiting for? Let’s dig right in and play all three of these graded dirt stakes on a $75 budget.

Race 7: San Antonio (G2, 1 1/16 miles, 5:00 p.m. ET)

Many handicappers will favor #8 Mucho Gusto (2-1), a runaway winner of the Pegasus World Cup (G1) back in January. A five-time graded stakes winner conditioned by Bob Baffert, Mucho Gusto has talent and tactical speed, but he hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in the Feb. 29 Saudi Cup.

For Mucho Gusto, the San Antonio is primarily a steppingstone toward a return trip to the Saudi Cup, so I don’t necessarily expect him to fire a peak effort off the layoff. For win purposes, I’m more intrigued by the chances of #3 Extra Hope (5-1) and #7 Idol (5-1).

Extra Hope has improved by leaps and bounds this season, most recently wiring the Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar with a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed rating. Meanwhile, the lightly-raced Idol ships in hot from Kentucky, where he recently dominated a 1 3/16-mile allowance race by 5 3/4 lengths. A 3-year-old son of Curlin out of an A.P.Indy mare, Idol is bred to improve with maturity and still has plenty of upside.

Let’s bet Extra Hope and Idol on top of a trifecta, then use them both to kick off a double.

$1 trifecta: 3,7 with 3,4,7,8 with 3,4,6,7,8 ($18)
$3 double: 3,7 with 11 ($6)
Total: $24

Race 8: La Brea (G1, 7 furlongs, 5:30 p.m. ET)

There are plenty of logical contenders in this prestigious dash for 3-year-old fillies, but none have managed to exceed the triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating plateau, which means it shouldn’t take much for a longshot to step up and challenge for victory. In my opinion, that longshot could be #11 Stellar Sound (5-1), whose odds may drift up from her morning line price.

A seven-length allowance winner at Santa Anita in October, Stellar Sound endured a tough trip in the 1 1/16-mile Bayakoa (G3) against older rivals at Los Alamitos last month. After breaking slowly, the daughter of Tapit unleashed a huge move around the first turn, rallying to lead by daylight through a quick half-mile in :46.76. This exhausting strategy understandably left Stellar Sound tired for the drive, but to her credit she held on to finish third.

The La Brea has been a long-term target for Stellar Sound, so I’m optimistic she’ll show improvement while cutting back in distance and facing fellow 3-year-olds. With a more relaxed journey, she can spring the upset at a fair price.

$20 to win on #11 Stellar Sound

Race 10: Malibu (G1, 7 furlongs, 6:30 p.m. ET)

The Malibu is being billed as a two-horse showdown between the brilliant front-runners #3 Nashville (6-5) and #4 Charlatan (9-5). Both have thrown down multiple triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings. Neither has ever been headed in a race.

The question is, what will happen when Nashville and Charlatan lock horns in the Malibu? An intense duel for early supremacy is surely on tap. Perhaps they’ll both survive the battle and run 1-2. But there’s also a chance one (or both) will crack from the pressure, allowing the unheralded #5 Express Train (15-1) to get involved at a big price.

Trained by John Shirreffs, Express Train has always shown flashes of serious talent. And if you draw a line through his troubled eighth-place finish in the Twilight Derby (G2) last time out, his 2020 form looks strong. After overcoming a stumbling start to win a 6 1/2-furlong allowance sprint at Del Mar, Express Train ran gallantly to finish second in a 1-mile allowance event at Santa Anita, beaten less than a length by the above-mentioned San Antonio contender Extra Hope.

I believe a fast-paced 7-furlong sprint will suit Express Train perfectly, allowing him to settle and pick up the pieces down the lane. Let’s key Express Train in the exacta with Nashville and Charlatan—if he finishes first or second, we’ll be rewarded with a nice payoff.

$10 exacta: 3,4 with 5 ($20)
$5 exacta: 5 with 3,4 ($10)
Total: $30

Good luck!