Scully: Leveraging Breeders' Cup Saturday top play in Pick 3s

November 4th, 2022

Nest rates as my best bet on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup program at Keeneland, and I will key her in Pick 3 wagers surrounding the Distaff (G1).

I won’t take on prohibitive favorites Flightline and Jackie’s Warrior in their respective races – those events aren’t appealing from a straight or vertical wager perspective – but both will be singled with Nest in a Pick 3. And I will add an upset contender in each race for a smaller denomination.

On a $105 budget, here is my strategy for leveraging Nest in Pick 3s.

Pick 3 Leg 1 – Sprint (G1), Race 7

#9 Jackie’s Warrior appears capable of dictating the pace wire-to-wire. If the favorite falters, up-and-coming #6 Elite Power is the one I want.

Leg 2 – Mile (G1), Race 8

#4 Modern Games is the one to beat following a pair of top-class performances, winning the Woodbine Mile (G1) and finishing second in the Queen Elizabeth (G1) on the recent Champions Day card at Ascot. The other main threat from overseas, #13 Kinross, will be added along with the classy U.S. distaffer #8 Regal Glory and recent Group 1 runner-up #9 Malavath.

Leg 3 – Distaff, Race 8

#6 Nest drew better and possesses more tactical speed than stablemate Malathaat, who may be further back then preferred from the rail given a projected moderate pace, and Nest enters in peak form, registering a 107 Brisnet Speed and 112 Late Pace rating romping in the Oct. 9 Beldame (G1) over elders. She’s poised for a top performance.

  • $10 Pick 3: 9 with 4, 8, 9, 13 with 6 ($40)
  • $5 Pick 3: 6 with 4, 8, 9, 13 with 6 ($20)

Pick 3 Leg 1 – Distaff, Race 8

See comments about the Distaff above regarding the use of Nest as a key.

Leg 2 – Turf (G1), Race 9

I’m against the top three choices on the morning line. #11 Mishriff rates a slight edge in his career finale, and #3 Stone Age and #9 Gold Phoenix are longshots of interest.

Leg 3 – Classic (G1), Race 10

An imposing favorite, #4 Flightline will look to track projected pacesetter #2 Life Is Good during the early stages. He may be able to overcome all obstacles, but the speedy four-year-old colt probably wants to avoid a prolonged battle on the front end. If Flightline does get softened up dueling, #6 Epicenter will look to take advances. The three-old has thrived for Steve Asmussen since being freshened off runner-up finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1).

  • $10 Pick 3: 6 with 3, 9, 11 with 4 ($30)
  • $5 Pick 3: 6 with 3, 9, 11 with 6 ($15)