Scully: Prairie Meadows Pick 3 play on July 2

James Scully

July 1st, 2021

Friday is the biggest evening of racing at Prairie Meadows. Some notable three-year-olds will be on display in the $250,000 Iowa Derby and $225,000 Iowa Oaks (G3), and the $300,000 Cornhusker H. (G3) has attracted Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner Knicks Go.

Fourth in the Met Mile (G1), Knicks Go is eligible to rebound on the class drop. His Brisnet Speed ratings (110-109-109) from the late fall/winter lay over the competition. But with Last Judgment drawn to his immediate inside, Knicks Go won’t be dictating an easy pace at the 1 1/8-mile distance.

Race shapes favored him in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup, and Knicks Go was in razor-sharp form at the time for Brad Cox. After a pair of well-beaten unplaced finishes, he’s dropping down to the Grade 3 level, and it will be interesting to see the early tactics.

Since getting drubbed in the Pegasus World Cup, Last Judgment has shown improved speed in the last three starts. The Mike Maker-trained gelding led wire-to-wire in the Challenger (G3) at Tampa. Runner-up in the Ghostzapper (G3) after blitzing an opening half-mile in :46 2/5, Last Judgment came back to dominate the May 14 Pimlico Special (G3) wire-to-wire most recently.

Utilizing a reasonable budget, I will try to beat the expected odds-on favorite in the all-stakes Pick 3 sequence that begins with the Iowa Derby.

Iowa Derby – Race 6 (9:12 p.m. ET)

Nova Rags wins the Pasco Stakes (SV Photography)

#9 Nova Rags (5-1 ML) didn’t receive the best trip from the rail finishing third in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G1), and has been stuck inside in the last three starts, but the outside draw should benefit him Friday. Runner-up in the nine-furlong Peter Pan (G3) two back, the stakes-winning colt appears to be making steady progress for Bill Mott. He rates a slight edge.

#7 Gagetown and #4 Flash of Mischief, the one-two finishers in the June 4 Prairie Mile S., will be added to my ticket. I would also use #8 Snow House, but he will reportedly scratch in favor of Monday's Dwyer (G3) at Belmont Park.

Iowa Oaks (G3) – Race 7 (9:42 p.m. ET)

The top choices on the morning line, #2 Pauline’s Pearl (2-1) and #1 Army Wife (5-2), have something going for them, and #6 Oliviaofthedesert (6-1) appears dangerous following a nice win in the June 4 Panthers S. at Prairie.

After concluding last year with a victory in the Trapeze S. at Remington, Oliviaofthedesert didn’t fare well when opening her three-year-old season in a pair of Kentucky Oaks (G1) qualifiers, but the gray Bernardini filly will return to the graded level for Kenny McPeek on the upswing.

After a rallying second in the Weber City Miss S. at Pimlico two back, Oliviaofthedesert went last-to-first in the final furlongs of the Panthers. She should receive a good setup with plenty of speed signed on in the 1 1/16-mile Oaks.

Cornhusker (G3) – Race 8 (10:12 p.m. ET)

#7 Modernist and #6 Rated R Superstar will receive six and 10 pounds, respectively, from 126-pound highweight Knicks Go, and both runners will seek an upset from off the pace.

After tailing off last season, earning a near seven-month vacation, Modernist appears to be discovering his best form at present. He has recorded a win and a pair of seconds in three attempts against Grade 3 foes this season, including a convincing tally in the 1 1/8-mile Excelsior (G3) two back. The four-year-old closed well for second most recently behind the loose-on-the-lead Last Judgment in the Pimlico Special, and Modernist has registered century-topping Brisnet Late Pace ratings in the last three outings.

A neck second to Silver State in the Essex H. in mid-March, eight-year-old Rated R Superstar can still bring it in the latter stages. He netted a 113 Late Pace rating finishing a neck second in the June 4 Jim Rasmussen S. at Prairie, and the gelding should relish the expected setup here.

$1 Pick 3 wager (Races 6-8)

4,7,9 with 1,2,6 with 6,7 ($18)

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