Shapiro on Saratoga's Late Pick 4 for July 30

July 29th, 2020

The Thursday afternoon card at Saratoga is headlined by the $85,000 John Morrissey H. The 7-furlong event drew a field of nine and makes up the third leg of a late Pick 4 sequence that begins in Race 7 and includes three races for New York breds.

Race 7:

7-5-morning line favorite #8 Mister Bobby moves to the far outside after a less than advantageous rail draw in his first try of the form cycle earlier this month. In that 6-furlong starter allowance event, the Shanghai Bobby gelding was used to gain position from the rail and chased eventual wire-to-wire winner Riken around the racetrack. With a more comfortable post on Thursday afternoon, the 4-year-old gelding should be able to stalk off the early pacesetters and out finish this bunch to start the sequence.

Race 8:

The pace should be honest in this state-bred second-level allowance event over the inner turf. #3 Short Pour and #7 Love and Love do their best running on the front end and a number of others like to be prominently placed as well. This should set things up for a runner that does her best running late.

#1 Pecatonica moves up in class after a win two weeks ago for trainer Thomas Bush. The Temple City filly will need to take a step forward to make it two straight, but her success over this course and probable voyage under Joel Rosario make her an appealing option at 8-1 on the line. #4 Out of Trouble did virtually no running in her June 19 start at 7 furlongs, but she was against the flow that day and potentially needed the race. She should get a much better setup on Thursday. #6 Myhartblongstodady has not been seen since last November, but has run second in both of her tries at Saratoga. If she is ready to run off the bench she will be rolling late. #2 Blue Atlas has yet to find the wire first in three starts over this turf course, but retains Jose Ortiz and should get a ground saving voyage in her second start of the 2020 campaign.

Race 9:

#4 Amundson drops back into the state-bred ranks after running into the extremely talented Fortin Hill in a high-level open company optional claiming event at Belmont Park on the Fourth of July. The 4-year-old gelding lost nothing in defeat in that try and looks to be lone speed in the Thursday feature. His trainer, Horacio DePaz, has yet to earn a victory at the meeting, but he has sent out only live runners evidenced by his four runner-up finishes and one third place effort in five starts. This son of Curlin should notch DePaz his first win of the summer at the Spa.

Race 10:

The Thursday afternoon festivities conclude with a 5 1/2-furlong dash over the lawn.

#2 Every Minute, #3 Boom Boom Kaboom, and #10 Fluent in Sarcasm all exit a very live maiden special weight event at Belmont Park on July 5. The winner of that race, Sanctuary City, came back to run a strong second versus allowance company on Saturday while the second- and third-place finishers ran 1-2 in the Sunday opener.

Every Minute is listed as the 7-2-morning line choice after missing the break and running on late. The son of Carpe Diem is bred well and did show some interest after the poor beginning, but I have a couple of concerns. Not only does the drop in for $40K not make sense after just one start, but also his late run was not as good as it looks since those involved early came to a crawl late. He is very likely to be over bet.  

The drop into maiden claimers makes much more sense for Boom Boom Kaboom who adds blinkers for George Weaver and Fluent in Sarcasm who draws favorably to the outside and attracts the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. I will include both of these, as well as a pair of second-time starters that should be big prices in #6 Threepointninenine and #8 Brickyard. Neither did much running versus protected maidens on debut, but take a drop in class after gaining much needed experience.

Suggested Wager: (50-cent Pick 4)

  • R7: 8
  • R8: 1+2+4+6
  • R9: 4
  • R10: 3+6+8+10

Ticket Cost: $16