Spot Plays for Churchill Downs undercard Sept. 12, 2026

Churchill Downs will offer five stakes Saturday, including the first qualifying races in the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Road to the Kentucky Oaks Challenge series. The Iroquois (G3) and Pocahontas (G2) for fillies will award points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale toward the top five respective finishers, and both races attracted imposing favorites.

Ellis Park Juvenile winner Salahudin, unbeaten in a pair of starts for six-time Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Bob Baffert, tops nine males in the Iroquois. Ellis Park Debutante winner Manuka Honey, who has captured her two starts by 14 1/4 lengths for Brian Lynch, heads nine in the Pocahontas.

I’m not keen to take on Built in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society S. or Splendora in the Locust Grove (G2). Instead, I will shop for more value on the undercard with the following spot plays.

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight

#1 Draw is listed at 4-1 on the morning line in the 6 1/2-furlong event. And considering Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, and Cherie DeVaux will all send out viable contenders, the price may be fair on the three-year-old filly in her career debut. Trainer Riley Mott has sent out a pair of debut winners in recent weeks, including Quibbler at Kentucky Downs, and Gun Runner does well with firsters (17% win). Draw appears to be training forwardly, recording back-to-back bullet works at Keeneland in preparation, and she’s bred to relish and appreciate possible wet conditions.

Race 4 – Allowance

Rigney Racing and Phil Bauer point toward every Churchill meet, and #8 Lincoln’s Law (8-1) shows a sharp series of workouts in preparation for his return after a 2 1/2-month layoff. A debut winner at Gulfstream, Lincoln’s Law followed with a runner-up to Cannoneer, who was exiting a fourth as the favorite in the Holy Bull (G3). Throw out Lincoln’s Law’s next start at two turns; he’s shown an affinity for shorter distances and will cut back to six panels following a respectable second to a loose-on-the-lead winner. I like his chances regardless of conditions, but any moisture in the track moves him up.

Race 11 – Maiden Special Weight

Eddie Kenneally, who shows only an 11% win rate from his last 150+ first-time starters, has recorded two of his last six wins with firsters, including Endrush on Thursday’s opener at Churchill, and #8 Jill’s Folly (4-1) appears poised to run well in her career debut. By good first-out sire Not This Time, Jill’s Folly’s will be the second foal to start from her dam, whose first runner, Connectable, won by open lengths first time out. I like her works in preparation, including a recent five-furlong bullet, and will look for a big effort.