The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for May 2-3, 2025

A special TwinSpires Jury of James Scully, Darin Zoccali, Ashley Anderson, and Nick Tammaro gather ahead of the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) to dish out their top picks in the big races at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 2, and Saturday, May 3.

The 43-day spring meet at Churchill Downs officially kicked off on Saturday, April 26, with a 10-race card, headlined by the Roxelana S., won by four-year-old filly Mink's Palace underneath rider Luis Saez.

Saez will have the mount on Kentucky Oaks 6-5 morning-line favorite, Good Cheer, who drew post 11 on Saturday night during the post-position draw beneath the Twin Spires. The Godolphin homebred is unbeaten from six starts and has already won three times at Churchill Downs. She will confront her largest field to date, challenging 13 other rivals. Ashland (G1) victress La Cara, the 6-1 second choice, is projected to go straight to the front and attempt a gate-to-wire upset in the 1 1/8-mile test. Other notables in the Kentucky Oaks include #14 Quietside (8-1), recent winner of the Fantasy S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park, and #2 Simply Joking (10-1), who has faced stakes company exclusively in her career.

On Saturday, it's the world's most famous horse race, the Kentucky Derby, listed as Race 12 on the 14-race program and set to go off at 6:57 p.m. ET. #8 Journalism (3-1) is a worthy morning-line favorite coming off his three-quarter-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The Curlin colt is 4-for-5 lifetime, with his lone loss coming on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight. Since then, he's won every start at a route distance and enters the fastest two minutes in sports with the highest last out Brisnet Speed Rating, a 108.

The Michael McCarthy trainee will look to track the early pacesetter breaking from post 8. Bob Baffert's pair of #1 Citizen Bull (20-1) and #4 Rodriguez (12-1) are expected to be major pace factors, along with #5 American Promise (30-1) and #12 East Avenue (20-1). 

Late closers may get an ideal setup in the 1 1/4-mile race. #18 Sovereignty (5-1) already has a late-running victory at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3). #17 Sandman (6-1) will have some history to defy, as no Kentucky Derby winner has drawn post 17 in the event's lengthy history. Steve Asmussen is also looking to make history of his own, as the winningest trainer in North America is still looking for his first Kentucky Derby win. He has two chances, both late runners — #13 Publisher (30-1), who is still a maiden after seven starts, and #14 Tiztastic (20-1), recent winner of the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2).

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