Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 20-1 at Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 29 at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds, including a 20-1 longshot.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 2/7 Sam F. Davis KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $120 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/31 Tampa Bay Downs KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 8: Allowance (seven furlongs on dirt, 3:51 p.m. ET)

#5 Rockies Balboa (5-2) has shown flashes of talent. In a six-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland last fall, he finished second by 1 1/4 lengths against a deep field, earning a flashy 91 Brisnet Speed rating. Most recently, Rockies Balboa wired a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden optional claimer at Gulfstream by 5 3/4 lengths, earning an 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Rockies Balboa’s Race 8 rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 86, so in all likelihood Rockies Balboa will take home top honors in his sophomore debut. Let’s bet him to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Rockies Balbo (5-2)
• #7 Prost (4-1)
• #1 Winplaceandshow (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Rockies Balboa
• $20 Double: 5 with 6
  Total: $40

Gulfstream Park: Race 9: $20,000 Starter Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 4:22 p.m. ET)

#6 Ashima (9-5) has been competing on turf as of late, most recently running third in the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf S. But she’s also a formidable talent on Tapeta, with seven wins over Gulfstream’s synthetic surface to her credit.

Ashima’s last try on Tapeta was excellent. She smashed a 1 1/16-mile $20,000 starter optional claimer at Gulfstream by 6 1/4 lengths, earning a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

Returning to the same conditions on Thursday should make Ashima tough to beat. We’ll single her to conclude our double wager, then key her over #1 Insolenta (6-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Ashima (9-5)
• #1 Insolenta (6-1)
• #2 I Love Venezuela (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 1

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

This field hasn’t come up all that tough on paper, so #2 Midnight Mischief (20-1) is an intriguing longshot. She’s shown early speed in two starts against maiden special weight competition on turf and Tapeta.

Midnight Mischief tired to finish eighth and sixth in those contests, but perhaps switching to dirt and dropping in class will unlock an improved performance. At 20-1, she’s worthy of a modest win bet.

Selections

• #2 Midnight Mischief (20-1)
• #6 Halo Music (5-2)
• #4 Bird the Legend (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #2 Midnight Mischief

Good luck!