Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill and Charles Town carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, May 29 at Delaware Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Churchill Downs, along with horses to play in non-jackpot carryovers at Churchill and Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Wednesday and Thursday from May 7 through May 29.
• Churchill Downs Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs on Thursday.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $100 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 6/14 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 5/31 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 4: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 2:02 p.m. ET)

#4 Amazing Bernie (7-5) is a logical favorite after finishing second, third, and sixth in $20,000, $16,000, and $25,000 maiden claimers on the East Coast. But don’t count #2 Prime Motive (2-1) out of the mix.

While Prime Motive hasn’t run as fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as Amazing Bernie, he’s dropping in class out of top-four finishes in $40,000 and $25,000 maiden claimers at Monmouth Park. Facing easier competition may trigger a step forward, and stretching out around two turns for the first time offers potential for improvement as well.

Let’s bet Prime Motive on top of Amazing Bernie in an exacta.

Selections

• #2 Prime Motive (2-1)
• #4 Amazing Bernie (7-5)
• #6 Carry Grant (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:14 p.m. ET)

Horseshoe Indianapolis was off the turf on Wednesday. Whether that’s the case again on Thursday or not, #9 Brown Sugar (3-1) looks like the horse to beat in this maiden special weight for fillies and mares.

Brown Sugar has run well on both dirt and turf. She finished third when debuting on dirt in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, earning a 79 Brisnet Speed rating. Then she finished second and third in a pair of two-turn turf maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 77 and 84.

Those Brisnet Speed ratings stack up well against Thursday’s field, and they exceed the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (74) for Thursday’s conditions. Hence, a win bet on Brown Sugar is in order.

Selections

• #9 Brown Sugar (3-1)
• #7 Nixon’s Time (30-1)
• #10 Pepper Girl (15-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Brown Sugar

Churchill Downs: Race 2: $50,000 Claiming (one mile on dirt, 5:29 p.m. ET)

#2 Iron Sharpens Iron (3-1) isn't the most consistent horse in training, but he’s occasionally flashed talent against tougher competition than he’ll face on Thursday. Two starts back, the son of Tapiture finished second by three-quarters of a length in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park.

Dropping in class for a $50,000 claimer may allow this Triple Crown nominee to challenge favored #6 Tizmarkus (2-1) for supremacy. The latter has earned stronger Brisnet Speed ratings, but is stepping outside the Arkansas-bred ranks for the first time.

Selections

• #2 Iron Sharpens Iron (3-1)
• #6 Tizmarkus (2-1)
• #5 Ultimate Strike (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Iron Sharpens Iron
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 6
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $6,917 Super High 5 carryover (5:00 p.m. ET)

The opening race on the Thursday card at Churchill Downs features a $6,917 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $16,000 claimer for older horses dashing seven furlongs on dirt. It’s a tricky race to handicap since several of the seven entrants have been running poorly against tougher competition, and it’s difficult to predict whether dropping in class will be sufficient to trigger turnarounds.

At least #1 Show Time (5-2) and #2 Miacomet (7-2) have recently run well. Show Time led much of the way to win a one-mile $16,000 claimer at Churchill Downs last month, while Miacomet exits a third-place finish in a $25,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill.

Show Time and Miacomet have posted competitive Brisnet Speed ratings on multiple occasions since last summer, and we suggest emphasizing them in the Super High 5. Count on one to win and the other to finish in the top four or five.

Charles Town: Race 4: $38,308 Pick 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

The $1 Late Pick 5 at Charles Town has tossed up an eye-catching $38,308 carryover.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Try #8 Stormproof (7-5) in Race 7, a seven-furlong dirt allowance. Stormproof is a Kentucky raider racing at Charles Town for the first time, and his form lines suggest he’ll be formidable in his West Virginia debut.

Stormproof debuted in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the Tapeta track at Turfway Park. After dueling for the lead, he stayed on to finish second with a 72 Brisnet Speed rating.

Stormproof followed up with an excellent effort in a six-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Keeneland. After setting the pace, he turned back a challenge to prevail by a neck with an 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions at Charles Town is 78, so Stormproof has already run fast enough to win a race like this. None of his seven rivals have recently earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 74, so if Stormproof repeats his Keeneland performance, he can deliver victory for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Victor Rodriguez and Kevin Joy.

Good luck!

Join us on June 7 for a rematch that will shake the stands. Many top Kentucky Derby contenders return for the Belmont S. (G1) to fight for the finish, including probable contender Journalism, winner of Preakness 150, and Sovereignty, winner of Derby 151. Who will stand in the winner's circle for Belmont?

Stay with us throughout Belmont Day during stakes races as we bring you the latest horse racing news, live odds, expert picks, and more. It is sure to be an exciting day of racing!