Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $6,985 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Nov. 6 at Aqueduct and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $6,985 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Aqueduct Feeder to 11/15 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/8 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Aqueduct: Race 2: Tempted S. (one mile on dirt, 12:40 p.m. ET)

#5 Day to Day (7-2) is an intriguing contender. She’s only run once on dirt, finishing fourth in a deep renewal of the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga. The top two finishers, Tommy Jo and Percy’s Bar, returned to finish 1-2 again in the Alcibiades (G1), while third-place finisher Rileytote came back to run second by a nose in the Frizette (G1).

The Tempted is shaping up as an easier spot than those Grade 1 contests, so dropping in class may send Day to Day to the winner’s circle under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Day to Day (7-2)
• #5 Believable (2-1)
• #4 Secane (9-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Day to Day

Aqueduct: Race 6: Chelsey Flower S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:39 p.m. ET)

#3 Deep Learning (8-5) is dropping in class after finishing fifth (beaten 1 3/4 lengths) in the Natalma (G1) and second (beaten two lengths) in the Miss Grillo (G2). In the latter race, Deep Learning was beaten only by Ground Support, who returned to finish a solid third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).

The competition should be easier in the Chelsey Flower, setting the stage for Deep Learning to secure her first stakes win. Maiden winner #1 Getting Serious (6-1) can battle with Miss Grillo fourth-place finisher #5 Fille d’Oro (3-1) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Deep Learning (8-5)
• #1 Getting Serious (6-1)
• #5 Fille d’Oro (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 3 with 1,5 ($20)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:48 p.m. ET)

Trainer Brad Cox excels debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Since 2023, he’s gone 11-for-24 (46%) with such runners.

That’s why #6 Bartender (8-5) is a logical choice to win Race 2. The unraced two-year-old filly has put together a promising work tab in Kentucky and is slated to be ridden by Fernando De La Cruz, a 38% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

#2 Resplendence (3-1), shipping from Kentucky and switching to dirt after a pair of starts on turf, can complete the exacta for hot trainer Paulo Lobo.

Selections

• #6 Bartender (8-5)
• #2 Resplendence (3-1)
• #4 Reachingforthemoon (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 2

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 3: $6,985 Super High 5 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

If you enjoy chasing non-jackpot Super High 5 carryovers, you’ll want to focus on the Thursday card at Churchill Downs. After going unsolved in the final race on Wednesday, Churchill’s $1 Super High 5 boasts a $6,985 carryover.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 3, a $100,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt. Only seven horses have entered, but it’s a tricky race to handicap since the morning-line favorites appear vulnerable.

#2 Merry Madison (5-2) might be the most reliable while dropping in class out of five maiden special weights, but she earned a modest 70 Brisnet Speed rating when last seen finishing fourth in a Keeneland maiden special weight. That’s 13 points below the par winning number (83) for Thursday’s conditions.

#3 Mimi’s Grace (3-1) is fast enough to factor on her best day. She’s cracked the trifecta in a couple of maiden special weights on the Kentucky circuit, including one sprinting six furlongs. But she hasn’t challenged in two starts since returning from a lengthy layoff.

#1 Hampton’s Affair (4-1) finished fifth in her debut over this distance and class level at Keeneland last month. She earned a modest 65 Brisnet Speed rating. Adding blinkers could trigger a step forward, but Hampton’s Affair will need meaningful improvement to challenge for victory.

#6 Baby Avery (5-1) has earned respectable 80 Brisnet Speed ratings in two of her last three starts, both maiden special weights. But those were route races, and they took place in 2024. Baby Avery hasn’t factored in three starts sprinting, and she hasn’t raced in 2025, so cutting back in distance off the long layoff could be tricky.

For all these reasons, longshots offer appeal.

#7 Bea Trix (10-1) has finished 11th, fifth, and 10th in her first three starts against maiden special weight company. All three took place on turf. It’s possible she’ll move forward and vie for victory while switching to dirt and dropping in class.

#5 Chasing Glory (8-1) has only run once, finishing fifth in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs nearly one year ago. She’s since switched trainers and is adding Lasix for her three-year-old debut. She could be a different horse this time around.

Let’s take a bold stand and count on either Bea Trix or Chasing Glory to deliver an upset victory: Underneath, we’ll emphasize Merry Madison.

• $1 Super High 5: 5,7 with 2 with 1,3,5,7 with 1,3,5,6,7 with ALL ($54)
• $1 Super High 5: 5,7 with 1,3,5,7 with 2 with 1,3,5,6,7 with ALL ($54)
  Total: $108

Good luck!