Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cold double at Del Mar

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 21 at Saratoga and Del Mar, along with a horse to single in the $1,594 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Colonial Downs $3,000 Turf Trial: Play the Colonial Downs Turf Trial (involving $10+ win bets in turf races at Colonial Downs) for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool on Wednesdays and Thursdays in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Saratoga Feeder to 8/23 Travers MMBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Charles Town Feeder to 8/30 Saratoga/Kentucky Downs MMBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:02 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Brad Cox has gone 6-for-29 (21%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Saratoga, a sharp tally suggesting #1 Donna Romano (8-1) offers value at her morning-line odds.

A daughter of Beau Liam (who is siring a promising 19% winners from first-time starters), Donna Romano has put together a solid work tab highlighted by five furlongs from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in 1:00 2/5. Under jockey Manny Franco (a 21% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), Donna Romano is worthy of a win bet.

#7 Jetty’s Home (7-2) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Donna Romano (8-1)
• #7 Jetty’s Home (7-2)
• #4 Sparkling Mama (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Donna Romano
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 6:36 p.m. ET)

#2 Cara Rose (7-5) has finished second twice in maiden special weights for California-breds on dirt. She’s also run third in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight on turf. Along the way, she’s earned respectable Brisnet Speed ratings, including an 83.

Tackling a maiden special weight for California-breds on turf might be precisely the right fit for Cara Rose, given that she’s a daughter of multiple Group 1-winning turf sprinter Caravaggio out of a mare by versatile stallion Ghostzapper.

Let’s single Cara Rose to start a double wager.

Selections

• #2 Cara Rose (7-5)
• #1 Final Table Lady (6-1)
• #8 Magic Club (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 2 with 3

Del Mar: Race 5: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 7:07 p.m. ET)

#6 Miso Phansy (2-1) is the favorite after finishing second in the Honeymoon (G3) on turf during the spring, but the daughter of Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Karakontie has competed exclusively on turf, and switching to dirt is a question mark.

#3 Jessebear (4-1) has run faster than Miso Phansy on the Brisnet Speed rating scale and is already proven on dirt. In her dirt debut, she rallied to win a $20,000 allowance optional claimer at Los Alamitos by 2 1/2 lengths, earning an 89 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks as the highest number belonging to any horse in Thursday’s field. She followed up with a second-place finish in the Bart Heller S. at Pleasanton.

At 4-1, Jessebear is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also single her to conclude our double. 

Selections

• #3 Jessebear (4-1)
• #6 Miso Phansy (2-1)
• #2 Lady Mendelssohn (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Jessebear

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 7: $1,594 Pick 6 carryover (1:57 p.m. ET)

There are three good reasons to play the “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs on Thursday.

One, the takeout rate is a modest 15%. Two, the minimum bet amount is only 50 cents, lower than the $1 to $2 minimums typical of similar non-jackpot Pick 6 wagers. Three, Thursday’s sequence features a value-adding $1,594 carryover.

If you assemble a winning ticket, there’s a good chance you’ll earn a large percentage of the betting pool. Before scratches, Thursday’s sequence contains 67 horses (averaging about 11.2 per race) and 1,658,880 possible outcomes. Every race contains at least eight horses, and finding a trustworthy single to build tickets around won’t be easy.

However, if you’re feeling bold and are willing to take a shot singling morning-line favorite #10 Echo Lane (3-1) in Race 11 (which drew 16 entries, including four also-eligibles), you can slice the number of possible outcomes to consider from 1,658,880 down to 103,680 in a single move.

Race 11 is a $25,000 starter allowance taking place over 1 1/16 miles on turf. Both the winner and the runner-up will automatically qualify for the Nov. 15 $175,000 Claiming Crown Emerald at Churchill Downs, so a capable field has turned out.

That’s why it’s good that Echo Lane is arguably overqualified to compete at this class level. He’s placed against stakes competition. He finished fourth in the Virginia Derby (G3) last year. And he’s run well in his last two starts against tougher competition than he’ll face on Thursday.

On May 11, Echo Lane employed pace-tracking tactics to finish second by a neck in a 1 1/8-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Then on June 21, in a 1 1/16-mile contest over the same course and class level, he rallied from fourth place in a large field to prevail by a neck. The form of the latter race was flattered when third-place finisher Army Officer returned to win a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Ellis Park in his next start.

Those efforts at Churchill Downs stamp Echo Lane as the horse to beat while dropping in class. Late-running #5 Lorenz (9-2), winner of the Mr. Steele S. at Gulfstream in May, looms as a primary challenger and is worth including on large Pick 6 tickets. But we believe Echo Lane’s superior tactical speed will give him an advantage over Lorenz, hence our recommending him as a viable single.

For good measure, Echo Lane is worth betting to win.

• Race 11: $30 to win on #20 Echo Lane

Good luck!