Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: McGaughey firster at 8-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 7 at Colonial Downs, Saratoga, and Del Mar, along with tickets for Hawthorne’s $1,032 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Colonial Downs $3,000 Turf Trial: Play the Colonial Downs Turf Trial (involving $10+ win bets in turf races at Colonial Downs) for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool on Wednesdays and Thursdays in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Saratoga Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga/Arlington Million MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Charles Town Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 5: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 12:59 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Mary Lightner has gone 4-for-10 (40%) saddling experienced juveniles in turf sprints at Colonial Downs.

This is a good sign for #8 Hot Cocoa (5-1). The daughter of Chance It debuted with a respectable effort in a five-furlong turf maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, in which she made a middle move to challenge for command before flattening out to finish fourth by 2 3/4 lengths.

Dropping in class for her second start can send Hot Cocoa to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Micah Husbands, a 26% winner at Colonial Downs this meet. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Hot Cocoa (5-1)
• #5 Tosca (6-1)
• #1 Kinda Krazy (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Hot Cocoa

Saratoga: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 1:44 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has excelled debuting juveniles in turf routes at Saratoga, going 5-for-12 (42%) since 2021.

That’s why we’re willing to try a win bet on #6 Likeness (8-1). The son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner enters off a lengthy series of half-mile workouts and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Jose Ortiz (a 23% winner at Saratoga this meet), so we believe his 8-1 morning-line odds offer value.

Selections

• #6 Likeness (8-1)
• #5 Olivetti (6-1)
• #7 Hedge Ratio (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Likeness

Del Mar: Race 1: $32,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#3 Little Tinker Elle (3-1) showed promise in a $50,000 maiden claimer, dashing five furlongs at Churchill Downs. The daughter of Maximum Security carved out the pace before weakening in the final furlong to finish fourth.

Dropping in class for a $32,000 maiden claimer should help Little Tinker Elle graduate for hot trainer Kent Sweezey, who has gone 2-for-7 (29%) at Del Mar this meet. A bullet half-mile workout in :46 3/5 at Del Mar cements Little Tinker Elle as an appealing win play.

Selections

• #3 Little Tinker Elle (3-1)
• #8 Call Me Susie (12-1)
• #4 Fire Ile (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Little Tinker Elle

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 8: $1,032 Super High 5 carryover (7:18 p.m. ET)

Do you have what it takes to select the top five finishers, in order, in Thursday’s final race at Hawthorne? If so, you can win a share of a $1,032 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 8 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. A dozen horses have entered, but two are also-eligible entrants, so chances are we’ll have a 10-horse field.

We rank #10 Star Blessing (4-1) as the horse to beat. She started her career with a couple of tries in one-mile grass maiden special weights on the Kentucky circuit, finishing eighth at Churchill Downs and 11th at Ellis Park. Star Blessing figures to find the competition easier at Hawthorne.

A beautifully bred daughter of No Nay Never, Star Blessing has the pedigree to excel on turf and hails from the red-hot barn of Wayne Catalano, who has gone 6-for-13 (46%) at Hawthorne this meet. Throw in the presence of jockey Walter Rodriguez—who has gone 8-for-18 (44%) during this Hawthorne meet—and Star Blessing is worth keying on top in the Super High 5.

Which horses should we use underneath? Several offer appeal. #2 Poverty With Aview (7-2) exits a runner-up finish in a $32,000 maiden claimer on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis, for which she earned a respectable 70 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

#4 Halfin (6-1) warrants respect too. She’s finished third in back-to-back maiden special weights on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 71 and 74.

#5 Acousticat (6-1) was beaten only three lengths when finishing third in a one-mile $20,000 maiden claimer over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf last month, earning a 69 Brisnet Speed rating.

First-time starter #1 Triple Moon (5-1) is also worth a long look. Trainer Chris Block (a 34% winner at Hawthorne this meet) wins at a solid 17% rate with horses debuting on turf, and sharp workouts at Hawthorne suggest Triple Moon has talent.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 2 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5 with 1,3,4,5,7,8 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 1,4,5 with 2 with 1,4,5 with 1,3,4,5,7,8 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,7,8 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5 with 2 ($6)
  Total: $78

Good luck!