Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Opening day plays at Churchill Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, including a pair of win bets on unraced juveniles.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in September.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 9/11 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $90 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 9/13 Churchill Downs NHC Qualifier
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 9/12 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Saratoga Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#4 Hamilton (2-1) has the pedigree to shine debuting over one mile at age two. He’s a son of Tapit, who has sired champion juveniles Essential Quality, Hansen, and Stardom Bound, as well as four winners of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1).

Meanwhile, Hamilton’s dam—Fancy Dress Party—has already foaled two stakes-caliber juveniles. Hamilton’s half-brother Gallivant won the six-furlong Bowman Mill S., while his full brother Tux finished third in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2).

Throw in the fact Hamilton is trained by Brad Cox (a 25% winner with horses debuting over one mile or farther), and the stage is set for Hamilton to deliver a winning debut.

Let’s key Hamilton on top of an exacta using fellow first-time starters #3 Righteous Dip (5-2) and #6 Shamrock Guard (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Hamilton (2-1)
• #3 Righteous Dip (5-2)
• #6 Shamrock Guard (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 3,6 ($30)

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert wins at a 33% rate with first-time starters, a lofty success rate suggesting Baffert’s unraced #8 Runnin Out of Time (9-2) is worth backing in this maiden sprint for juveniles.

Runnin Out of Time is a son of hot young sire Early Voting, who is siring 23% winners from first-time starters. A quick half-mile workout in :47 at Churchill last Saturday suggests Runnin Out of Time has some talent, and two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat is named to ride.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Runnin Out of Time (9-2)
• #2 T V Time Out (5-1)
• #11 Prestissimo (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Runnin Out of Time

Churchill Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 7:28 p.m. ET)

#1 Fools Rush In (5-2) is an unraced son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief, who throws a strong 15% winners from first-time starters.

Purchased for $525,000 as a yearling, Fools Rush In has put together a lengthy work tab for trainer Brad Cox, capped off by a bullet five furlongs from the Churchill Downs starting gate in 1:01 3/5. Flavien Prat (a 43% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months) is named to ride, so there’s a lot to like about Fools Rush In.

Let’s place a win bet on the promising bay colt.

Selections

• #1 Fools Rush In (5-2)
• #7 Moonfire (6-1)
• #5 Topmost (8-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Fools Rush In

Good luck!