Tipsheet: 2026 Breeders’ Cup Mile

The grassy, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday features a quartet of contenders who competed in the 2025 event, led by defending champion Notable Speech. 

Breeders’ Cup Mile Picks

• #8 Notable Speech
• #11 Formidable Man
• #1 Deterministic
• #2 Lake Forest
• #14 Puerto Rico

Breeders’ Cup Mile Wagers

• $6 exacta key box 8 with 1,2,11,14
• 50-cent superfecta 8 with 1,2,11,14 with 1,2,11,14 with all

Breeders’ Cup Mile Contenders

#1 DETERMINISTIC (8-1): Miguel Clement trainee has been consistently excellent over the past two seasons and will be a forward presence from the start from the fence in the tilt. The four-time Grade 1 victor had a strong prep for the contest, when second in the Woodbine Mile (G1), and rates as an obvious winning chance under regular pilot Kendrick Carmouche. 

#2 LAKE FOREST (6-1): Group 2 star can be very good on his best day and looms as an upset contender for trainer William Haggas. The No Nay Never gelding tuned up for the Mile with a rallying second in the Turf Mile (G1) here on Oct. 3 and will get more honest fractions to run at late on Saturday. Cieren Fallon stays in the silks. 

#3 FACTEUR CHEVAL (30-1): $5.7 million earner hasn't been in his best form over the past two campaigns, but the seven-year-old has a world of back class and could surprise with a top-three finish under Manny Franco. Now in the hands of Mark Casse, the Ribchester gelding prepped for the contest with an allowance tally at Keeneland last time out and will be doing his best work late at a big price. 

#4 CABO SPIRIT (30-1): California invader is the pace of the race and led all the way in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita most recently. The George Papaprodromou pupil will likely face early pressure in the tilt, and he would be a big surprise to be in the hunt late against this group beneath Mike Smith.

#5 ASK IKIGOMI (20-1): Lord Kanaloa three-year-old is a nose shy of being unbeaten from a trio of career outings to date, and the lightly raced sophomore will face his elders after a long absence in this spot. The Fujiwara trainee is a wildcard in the cast, and I will watch the wagering on the colt before making a final decision in his first run with older foes. Ryusei Sakai will be in the irons. 

#6 ZULU KINGDOM (15-1): Chad Brown trainee captured the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) on the course in April and will be a top-three contender with something resembling that effort. The four-year-old bay might be a cut below the top contenders in the field, but he is especially accomplished and will offer great value with Flavien Prat taking the reins. 

#7 QIRAT (30-1): Juddmonte homebred was outrun in the race last season but comes in with fine form, led by a strong Group 2 score at Longchamp in his latest venture. The Showcasing gelding will move forward if he gets soft ground on Saturday with Colin Keane in the stirrups. 

#8 NOTABLE SPEECH (7-5): Godolphin homebred was an eye-popping winner of the race in 2025 and gets the nod to make it two in succession for trainer Charles Appleby. The Dubawi five-year-old was a powerful winner of the Woodbine Mile last time and landed in a field with a lot of pace signed on to aid his substantial late burst, too. William Buick retains the mount atop the leading choice. 

#9 RHETORICAL (8-1): William Walden pupil loves the course and comes off a facile tally in the Turf Mile (G1) where he led throughout. The Not This Time New York-bred finished a positive fourth in the race last year and will be well placed turning for home on Saturday with Jose Ortiz in the silks. 

#10 LUGAL (30-1): An interesting invader from the Sugiyama barn has put in a few major efforts while sprinting on the green and will run one mile for the first time against this group. The six-year-old son of Duramente is hard to get a read on, but he is obviously quite talented and wouldn’t be a total shock to make the frame beneath Oisin Murphy. 

#11 FORMIDABLE MAN (15-1): Michael McCarthy's charge was second in the contest in 2025, and I like his chance to fill out the exacta once again despite the outside draw under John Velazquez. The City of Light five-year-old didn’t thrive over the Kentucky Downs green last time out, but he is an excellent miler on flat courses, and his versatility will come in handy breaking from the outer post in his local debut. John Velazquez, who piloted the bay in the tilt last season, will be on board. 

#12 TRUE LOVE (8-1): Multiple Group 1 vixen got back to her winning ways with a game tally in the Prix la Foret at Longchamp and has exotics appeal with any improvement off of that victory. The No Nay Never filly can be especially good on her best day and fits well in this spot with Wayne Lordan picking up the mount. 

#13 BRILLIANT BERTI (30-1): Outsider from the DeVaux shedrow has won just three of his last 13 starts and would be a major surprise in the deep field with Brian Hernandez, Jr. signed on. 

#14 PUERTO RICO (10-1): Second in the group for Aidan O’Brien, the Wootton Bassett colt has yet to carry his superb juvenile form into 2026, but ran big at Longchamp last time and has appeal despite drawing widest of all. The dual Group 1 winner has faced off with fantastic foes this campaign; intriguingly, Ryan Moore lands on the three-year-old colt in the tilt. 

#15 VINA ARANA (30-1) (Also-Eligible): Grade 2 heroine has never faced the boys and looks a cut below the best in this field for Sisterson.