Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Indianapolis Pick 5 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Aug. 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, including horses to play in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs each Tuesday in August.
• Presque Isle Downs $1,000 Win Hit It & Split It: Hit three winning $10+ win wagers at Presque Isle Downs each Tuesday in August for a chance to split a $1,000 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $160 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/23 Travers MMBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#6 Midnight West (5-2) was compromised by a speed-biased track when finishing third in the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. But even in defeat, he earned a sharp 93 Brisnet Speed rating, two points higher than the par winning number for Tuesday’s conditions.

Two starts back, Midnight West wired a $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis by 9 1/4 lengths, earning a 96 Brisnet Speed rating. If he encounters a fair track while dropping in class on Tuesday, Midnight West can cruise to victory.

Let’s bet Midnight West to win, single him to start a double bet, and key him over #2 Best Actor (10-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #6 Midnight West (5-2)
• #2 Best Actor (10-1)
• #1 Man in the Can (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 Midnight West
• $10 Double: 6 with 11
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#11 Na Pali Joe (7-2) ran well in a $32,000 maiden claimer over this course and distance last month. After rating within a few lengths off the pace, he advanced to finish third with a respectable 73 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping down to the $20,000 level should give Na Pali Joe a chance to beat #10 Fletcher Bay (2-1), who finished second over this course, distance, and class level on June 26. We’ll place our bets accordingly.

Selections

• #11 Na Pali Joe (7-2)
• #10 Fletcher Bay (2-1)
• #3 Gibran (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Na Pali Joe
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 10
  Total: $25

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Allowance (seven furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Nikkitysplit (7-5), a stakes winner sprinting at Assiniboia Downs, is the slight favorite in this allowance for fillies and mares. But the three-year-old filly is facing older rivals for the first time and may prove vulnerable against #5 Apple Fest (8-5), who has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale.

Apple Fest misfired in a six-furlong allowance at Assiniboia last month, finishing fourth. But two starts back, the former Southern California campaigner trounced a six-furlong maiden special weight at Assiniboia by four lengths.

Let’s key Apple Fest over Nikkitysplit in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Apple Fest (8-5)
• #2 Nikkitysplit (7-5)
• #3 Majestic Appeal (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 2

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $3,980 Pick 5 carryover (2:10 p.m. ET)
Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $2,650 Pick 5 carryover (3:43 p.m. ET)

If one Pick 5 carryover isn’t enough to entice you to play the Tuesday card at Horseshoe Indianapolis, how about two? That’s right—both of the 50-cent Pick 5s at Horseshoe Indianapolis went unsolved on Saturday, triggering a pair of carryovers into Tuesday.

The Pick 5 sequences overlap in Race 4 and Race 5, so these are the most pivotal legs to handicap. If you fail to find the winners of both races, you won’t win a share of either Pick 5 carryover.

Race 4 is a $32,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. #3 Fascinator (9-5) is the morning-line favorite and a formidable win threat. Two starts back, the four-year-old filly ran second by less than one length in a 1 1/16-mile grass maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Last time out, she placed seventh in a $50,000 maiden claimer on turf at Ellis Park. Returning to Horseshoe Indianapolis for a $32,000 maiden claimer should make Fascinator tough to beat.

But don’t dismiss #1 Monsoon Dancer (15-1) as a live longshot. The three-year-old filly hasn’t factored in two starts to date, but those were maiden special weight sprints on the Kentucky circuit. She’s dropping in class and stretching out in distance off a ninth-place finish in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, and those shifts make Monsoon Dancer a must-use filly in both Pick 5s.

As for Race 5, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer, we’ve already identified #6 Midnight West (5-2) as our top choice for reasons outlined above. We’re confident he’ll vie for victory. His last two Brisnet Speed ratings (93 and 96) are noteworthy since none of his Race 5 rivals have earned a number higher than 92 in their last two starts apiece.

If anyone can challenge Midnight West, it might be #2 Best Actor (10-1), who earned a 92 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second in a $175,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs two starts back. He’s dropping in class out of a stakes and should find the competition easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Bettors playing the Pick 5s on modest budgets should consider Midnight West as a viable single. However, Best Actor could have a fighting chance at an upset, so bettors with big budgets (and aspirations for big payoffs) may wish to include Best Actor on their Pick 5 tickets for good measure.

Good luck!