Turfway Park: A deserving single and vulnerable favorite in the Pick 5

The racing week at Turfway Park kicks off on Wednesday with a competitive eight-race card. Deep fields are par for the course, with an average of 13 horses entered per race.

The $0.50-cent Pick 5 beginning in Race 1 is shaping up to be a particularly challenging sequence with 68 horses (13.6 per race) in the mix. Thanks to a carryover pool of $67,399, the payoff should be enticing if you can assemble a winning ticket.

To that end, we’ve analyzed the favorites in each leg of the sequence to highlight the most deserving favorite (by extension a logical cost-cutting single), as well as the most vulnerable favorite.

Good luck!

Best single

Race 1: #2 My Dear Lolita (3-1)

Although there are several promising runners entered in this 6-furlong, $15,000 maiden claiming race, My Dear Lolita looms as a formidable favorite. It all comes down to the winning percentages of her trainer, Wesley Ward. Turfway’s reigning top trainer has gone 3-for-6 (50%) to start the meet, and since the beginning of 2015 he’s gone 20-for-48 (42%) saddling first-time starters at Turfway—a record that improves to 8-for-17 (47%) since the beginning of 2019.

Ward also strikes at a 30% rate with runners debuting in maiden claiming races, so any way you slice it, My Dear Lolita should be primed for a winning effort under hot jockey Gerardo Corrales (5-for-12, 42% so far at Turfway).

Vulnerable favorite

Race 2: #6 Wild Weekend (2-1)

It’s easy to see why Wild Weekend is the 2-1 morning line favorite in this 1-mile, $5,000 claiming event. The son of Malibu Moon is dropping down the class ladder in his first start for high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli, and his best Brisnet Speed rating—an 86 posted when finishing third for a $25,000 tag two starts back—is tied for the highest in Wednesday’s field.

But Wild Weekend misfired in a $10,000 claiming race at Churchill Downs last time out, fading badly before easing across the finish line. He’ll be making his debut over a synthetic track at Turfway while simultaneously racing as a gelding for the first time, two important new factors to contemplate. Maybe they’ll prompt Wild Weekend to rebound with Corrales in the saddle, but I’m more inclined to view the favorite as vulnerable at a short price.