Analyzing five-figure Sunday carryovers at Aqueduct and Keeneland

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play in a pair of five-figure carryovers on Sunday at Aqueduct and Keeneland.

Aqueduct, Race 4: $65,367 Pick 6 carryover (2:31 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of the $65,367 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct, you’ll have to solve Race 4, the opening leg of the sequence. It’s a massively difficult maiden special weight for two-year-olds fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Nine horses have entered, and they’re all first-time starters. There isn’t any proven form to analyze, so we’ll have to rely on trainer stats, workouts, and pedigrees to determine which fillies to include.

We’ll definitely use #1 For the Ladies (3-1). While trainer Thomas Morley wins only 6% of the time with debuting horses, For the Ladies has shown speed in the mornings, most notably clocking a bullet five furlongs from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in :59. Plus, For the Ladies is a daughter of Upstart, an early-maturing runner who sires a sharp 15% winners from first-time starters.

#3 Sassy One (7-2), a Godolphin homebred, is a daughter of perennial leading sire Into Mischief, who sires 15% winners from first-time starters. Under hot jockey Kendrick Carmouche (a 22% winner at Aqueduct this meet), Sassy One is a logical contender.

#9 Cravings (9-2), a son of champion two-year-old male Essential Quality, worked a fast half-mile from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in :47. She looks like a live runner for trainer Chad Summers, a 17% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

We’ll round out Race 4 with #7 It’s Carol’s Way (12-1), a daughter of juvenile Grade 1 winner McKinzie. On two occasions, she’s breezed half a mile from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in the bullet time of :47 2/5.

Keeneland, Race 10: $12,990 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers in Race 10 at Keeneland, the $400,000 Bourbon (G2), you can win a share of a $12,990 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The Bourbon is a 1 1/16-mile grass race for juveniles. A dozen horses have entered, including #6 Final Score (8-5), a gate-to-wire winner of the 1 1/16-mile With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga. Final Score set a decent pace in the With Anticipation and still kicked on to win by 4 1/2 lengths over Heeere’s Johnny, who returned to finish second in the Pilgrim (G2).

Final Score has a strong chance to finish first or second in the Bourbon. The other horse we recommend emphasizing is #10 Vintur (6-1), who rallied from midfield to crush a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs by five lengths. That runaway win earned a strong 87 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number posted on turf by any horse entered in the Bourbon.

We suggest taking a stand and boxing Final Score and Vintur in the top two slots of the Super High 5, counting on them to run 1-2 in either order.

Good luck!