Aqueduct: Analyzing graded stakes in the $22,632 Pick 6 carryover

There’s a lot to look forward to on Saturday at Aqueduct. Five stakes are on the agenda, and there’s a $22,632 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Three of the stakes are graded, and all three are part of the Pick 6, which gets underway in Race 5 at 1:40 p.m. ET. Here’s how we see the graded stakes unfolding:

Race 7: Hill Prince (G3)

This 1 1/8-mile grass contest has drawn a field of nine three-year-olds. #1 Noble Confessor (5-1) is a logical contender. He’s finished second in the Jockey Club Derby (G2) and Pilgrim (G2) at Aqueduct, in addition to placing sixth (beaten only 2 1/4 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

However, Noble Confessor isn’t the morning-line favorite. That honor goes to #6 Stars and Strides (2-1), whose 2-for-2 record on turf includes a sharp triumph in the Saranac S. at Saratoga. Stars and Strides is stepping up in class, but may be talented enough to handle the challenge.

We suggest using Noble Confessor and Stars and Strides equally in the Pick 6.

Race 9: Mother Goose (G2)

Nine sophomore fillies will race 1 1/8 miles over the Aqueduct main track in the Mother Goose. Several loom as viable win contenders.

#9 Drexel Hill (7-2) is favored after finishing second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). During the winter, she won the Busher S. at Aqueduct. But the stretch-running filly hasn’t run in six months, and the form of this year's Kentucky Oaks generally hasn’t held up well.

Drexel Hill could certainly win the Mother Goose, but we also suggest using dominant Churchill Downs allowance winner #1 Being Myself (6-1), runaway Aqueduct maiden winner #5 Filly Freedom (15-1), and Remington Park Oaks conqueror #8 So There She Was (6-1).

Race 10: Long Island (G3)

The final graded stakes on the card is the Long Island for fillies and mares racing 1 3/8 miles on turf. The conditions should perfectly suit #3 Beach Bomb (3-1), who has cracked the exacta in three of her four starts over this distance, including a neck defeat in Aqueduct’s Waya (G3) last month.

Beach Bomb is an effective long-distance grass racer with the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in the Long Island. The only other filly we recommend using is #10 Fun With Flags (15-1), who exits a pair of third-place finishes in $75,000 allowance optional claimers at Saratoga and Aqueduct. The Chad Brown trainee has run well over long distances in France, even finishing second in the Prix Cleopatre (G3) racing about 1 5/16 miles, so Fun With Flags may relish stretching out over 1 3/8 miles.

Good luck!