Aqueduct: Horses to bet in the $16,285 Pick 6 carryover

There are two stakes on the Saturday card at Aqueduct, but the highlight of the betting action is a $16,285 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 gets started in Race 5 (post time 1:40 p.m. ET), which just happens to be the perfect spot to seek a single.

Race 5 is a $10,000 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. Nine horses have entered, but #6 Master of Arms (3-5) is the heavy favorite and towers over the field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. 

Master of Arms has cracked the trifecta in six of his seven starts this year, all against tougher competition. Along the way, he’s posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 99, 93, 97, 94, 87, 88, and 86. Only two of the other horses entered in Race 5 have posted a rating higher than 86 this year, and those two—#2 Glint (12-1) and #8 Grouch (8-1)—have been out of form lately, failing to post a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 77 in their last three starts apiece.

The numbers are compelling, but the fact Master of Arms has run such strong ratings while competing against tougher competition is especially noteworthy. Back in January, he won a six-furlong $50,000 starter allowance at Aqueduct. And two starts back—in his return from a layoff—he won a six-furlong $16,000 claimer at Aqueduct over a next-out winner.

Master of Arms was claimed out of that win by trainer Linda Rice. Master of Arms’ first start for Rice was unremarkable—he finished fifth by four lengths in a seven-furlong $16,000 starter allowance at Aqueduct—but Rice wins at a 27% rate with horses running back for the second time following a claim, so dropping down to the $10,000 level should help Master of Arms rebound with a winning performance.

We strongly recommend singling Master of Arms to kick off the Pick 6.

Another fairly straightforward Pick 6 leg to handicap is Race 7, the $350,000 Jockey Club Oaks (G3) for three-year-old fillies racing 1 3/8 miles on turf. #7 Laurelin (8-5) boasts a 5-for-6 career record, with her lone defeat being a runner-up effort in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1). She’s dropping in class for the Jockey Club Oaks and should be tough to beat.

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However, we also recommend using #4 Fionn (2-1). She ran a bit below form when finishing fourth in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, but she’d won six of her seven starts before that, including the Regret (G3), Belmont Oaks (G1), and Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3) in succession. She’s won running farther than Laurelin and may appreciate the 1 3/8-mile distance of the Jockey Club Oaks.

Good luck!