Churchill Downs: Betting the $10,470 Super High 5 carryover

The Sunday card at Churchill Downs gets underway with a $10,470 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Race 1 (post time 1:00 p.m. ET).

Race 1 is a $12,500 claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. #3 Castle Island (5-2) is the morning-line favorite, and his credentials are solid.

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $10,470 Super High 5 carryover wager

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,6,7 with 1,2,6,7 with 1,2,5,6,7 ($36)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3 with 1,6,7 with 1,6,7 with 1,5,6,7 ($12)
  Total: $48

Castle Island is descending sharply in class for trainer Joe Sharp, who wins at a lofty 30% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. His last few starts have come in $32,000 and $40,000 claimers at Saratoga and Keeneland; in one of them, he finished third.

During the first half of 2025, Castle Island won twice at the $25,000 level at Aqueduct, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 91 that tower over the par winning number (83) for Sunday’s conditions at Churchill Downs. Dropping into a $12,500 claimer should make Castle Island tough to beat.

If anyone can spring the upset, it’s #2 Masteroffoxhounds (3-1). The eight-year-old gelding has spent the vast majority of his career competing on turf and won a couple of graded stakes back in 2021-22. He’s no longer as effective as he once was, though he retains early speed, which he displayed when finishing fifth in a $50,000 claimer on dirt at Churchill Downs last month. He may carry his speed farther while descending to the $12,500 level for trainer David Jacobson, a 21% winner with horses dropping down multiple class levels.

Meanwhile, #1 Big Paper (5-1) is facing tougher company after winning three straight $5,000 claimers at Belterra Park. His red-hot form is hard to dismiss since many of the horses entered in Race 1 exit poor performances, so we’ll use him for as high as second place on our main ticket.

We’ll also include #7 Texas Red Hot (9-2) in the second slot. It’s been a long time since Texas Red Hot last cracked the trifecta, but he’s been running against tougher competition. Now he’s been claimed by Robertino Diodoro, who strikes at a 25% rate with horses dropping in class off a claim, so perhaps Texas Red Hot has a path to rebounding.

Good luck!