Churchill Downs: Single for the mandatory-payout $188,256 Pick 6 carryover

The Churchill Downs September Meet comes to an end on Sunday, which means the mandatory payout of a massive $188,256 jackpot carryover in the 20-cent “Derby City 6” Pick 6.

Churchill Downs: Race 5: $188,256 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:45 p.m. ET)

The Pick 6 spans Races 5 through Race 10. Before scratches, the sequence contains 61 horses (averaging nearly 10.2 per race) and 950,400 possible outcomes. It’s a difficult Pick 6 to solve, made more so by the fact every race contains at least eight horses.

Fortunately, a viable single can be found in Race 7: #3 Foxiest (6-5), the clear favorite on the morning line.

Best single: Race 7: #3 Foxiest (6-5)

Two-year-old fillies will race 7 1/2 furlongs over the main track in Race 7, a maiden special weight. Nine horses have entered, but Foxiest looks tough to beat for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox.

A beautifully bred daughter of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner out of 2019 champion three-year-old filly and champion female sprinter Covfefe, Foxiest debuted on Aug. 29 in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. She stumbled at the start and wound up racing in sixth place for the first half-mile, but down the homestretch she fought her way to third place, beaten only a nose for runner-up honors.

This promising debut yielded an 81 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any of the experienced fillies entered in Race 7. It’s also just one point shy of the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Sunday’s conditions.

Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters, so Foxiest is eligible to take a step forward at Churchill Downs, especially if she gets off to a clean break. The presence of jockey Luis Saez (a 22% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months) adds to the appeal.

By singling Foxiest in the Pick 6, we can reduce the number of possible outcomes to consider from 950,400 down to 105,600, a solid start toward assembling a competitive (and hopefully winning) ticket.

For good measure, we recommend betting Foxiest over #5 Dantini (9-2) in an exacta.

Dantini, a stoutly bred daughter of Good Magic, gobbled up ground to finish third in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf at Colonial Downs. She should appreciate stretching out in distance and switching to dirt for her second start. Take note, trainer William Walden wins at a 33% rate with second-time starters.

Race 7 wager

• $10 Exacta: 3 with 5

Good luck!