Churchill Downs: Single for the mandatory-payout $214,090 Pick 6

Sunday is closing day of the Churchill Downs September meet, which brings the mandatory payout of a $214,090 carryover in the 20-cent “Derby City 6” Pick 6.

Churchill Downs: Race 5: $214,090 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:45 p.m. ET)

Winning a share of the carryover won’t be easy. Five of the six races in the sequence have drawn between nine and 12 horses. All told, the Pick 6 contains 56 horses (averaging about 9.3 per race) and 583,200 possible outcomes.

Fortunately, there’s one straightforward race within the sequence. Race 8, a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer, has drawn only six horses, and morning-line favorite #4 Not This Boy (6-5) looms as a trustworthy single to build tickets around.

Not This Boy has knocked heads with some quality rivals while cracking the exacta in all seven of his starts. In the 2024 Ellis Park Derby, he was beaten only a nose by Most Wanted, who has since won the Oklahoma Derby (G3) and placed second in four other graded stakes. Even in defeat, Not This Boy earned a flashy 105 Brisnet Speed rating.

Not This Boy remains in strong form this year. Two starts back, he smashed a 1 1/16-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs by 6 3/4 lengths over a next-out winner. Most recently, Not This Boy finished second by a head in the 1 1/16-mile West Virginia Governor’s S. at Mountaineer, beaten only a head by Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show. That effort earned a strong 103 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other horses entered in Race 8 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 102, so a peak performance from Not This Boy should be plenty sufficient to take home top honors. It’s encouraging to note trainer William Cowans wins at a lofty 40% rate with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start, an angle which applies to Not This Boy.

By singling Not This Boy in the Pick 6, we can slice the number of outcomes to consider from 583,200 down to 97,200, an excellent start to assembling an affordable (and hopefully winning) ticket.

Good luck!