Colonial Downs: Picks for Saturday’s $7,381 Pick 6 carryover

On Saturday, bettors playing the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs will be vying for a share of a $7,381 carryover.

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $7,381 Pick 6 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)

The Pick 6 spans Race 4 through Race 9. Before scratches, the sequence features 58 horses (averaging about 9.7 per race) and 689,920 possible outcomes.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a logical single and a live longshot worth backing:

Best single: Race 5: #2 Trim Castle (6-5)

Race 5 is a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-olds racing one mile on turf. At first glance, it might seem odd to single Trim Castle since he’s competed exclusively on dirt and has yet to race farther than five furlongs.

But Trim Castle isn’t facing the toughest field on paper, and there’s a lot to like about his chances. He earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 79 and 70 when finishing second and third in a pair of five-furlong maiden special weights at Churchill Downs, and the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Saturday’s easier class level at Colonial is 76.

Trim Castle is dropping blinkers (a 22% winning move for trainer John Ennis), which should help him relax while stretching out in distance. His pedigree suggests he’ll handle one mile, and the switch to grass should be fine too. Throw in the presence of hot jockey Johan Rosado (a 21% winner at Colonial this meet), and Trim Castle is a compelling win choice.

Live longshot: Race 7: #2 Adero (10-1)

One of two stakes on the card is Race 7, the $100,000 Yorktown S. for three-year-olds and older horses racing 1 1/8 miles on dirt. #3 Barbadian Runner (6-5) is the heavy morning-line favorite after cracking the exacta in 11 straight races and earning triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings in three of his last four starts. He’s a must-use contender in the Pick 6.

But in the 1 1/8-mile Deputed Testamony S. at Laurel Park last month, Barbadian Runner proved only a nose better than Adero. Slow pace fractions of :25.42, :50.48, and 1:15.90 gave the pace-tracking Barbadian Runner an advantage, yet Adero—rallying from fourth place—gained two lengths through a fast :12.06 final furlong to fall just shy of victory.

There should be a bit more pace in the Yorktown, giving Adero a chance to turn the tables. He’s shown improving form since being claimed by red-hot trainer Jamie Ness and can spring an upset in the Yorktown. Don’t leave him off your Pick 6 tickets.

Good luck!