Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $1,751 Super High 5 at Ellis Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 4, at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Ellis Park, and Saratoga, including tickets for the $1,751 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• Los Alamitos 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Los Alamitos for each racing date in June and July.
• Saratoga $5,000 Friday Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Play the early, middle, or late Pick 4 at Saratoga for a chance to split a $1,000 prize pool for each Pick 4 sequence. Hit any two Pick 4 sequences on the day and split an additional $2,000.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis 25% Odds Boost: Receive a 25% odds boost (up to $50 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Friday and Saturday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $70 Ellis Park Challenge
• $240 Ellis Park Bonus Feeder Friday to 7/5 Indiana Derby KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $40 Los Alamitos TB Challenge
• $100 Los Alamitos TB Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 12:59 p.m. ET)

Trainer Kelsey Danner has enjoyed terrific success at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, going 5-for-11 (45%). That includes a 1-for-1 tally with first-time starters after Jutland won a 7 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight on Thursday.

Danner can snag another debut winner on turf with #5 Somnambulist (7-2). The daughter of Liam’s Map enters off sharp workouts at Turfway Park (including half a mile from the starting gate in :47 4/5) and is slated to be ridden by red-hot jockey Adam Beschizza, who previously partnered with Jutland.

Let’s bet Somnambulist to win, then add an exacta using #1 Dreaming Collect (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #5 Somnambulist (7-2)
• #1 Dreaming Collect (9-2)
• #3 Red Beretta (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Somnambulist
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:42 p.m. ET)

#11 War Spirit (10-1) has put together a sharp work tab. She’s posted three bullet exercises, including half a mile from the Ellis Park starting gate in :48 and three furlongs in a :36.

A daughter of three-time Grade 1 winner Omaha Beach (who sires a sharp 15% winners from first-time starters), War Spirit has a chance to outrun expectations on debut. Let’s place a win bet on this $500,000 yearling acquisition.

Selections

• #11 War Spirit (10-1)
• #1 Western Warrior (4-1)
• #8 Throttle (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 War Spirit

Saratoga: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:50 p.m. ET)

Since 2023, trainer George Weaver has gone 2-for-3 (67%) debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga. That’s a good sign for #7 Santinni (5-1), a speedily bred son of sprinter/miler Munnings.

Santinni has posted eight timed workouts in preparation for his debut and should be fit for a competitive run. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Santinni (5-1)
• #9 Essentially Fast (10-1)
• #1 Irish Goodbye (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Santinni

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 2: $1,751 Super High 5 carryover (1:19 p.m. ET)

The Ellis Park meet is barely underway, and already there’s a Super High 5 carryover up for grabs.

The $1 wager went unsolved in the final race on Thursday’s opening-day card, triggering a $1,751 carryover into Friday’s second race, a $7,500 claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt.

Mathematically speaking, winning a share of the carryover shouldn’t be difficult. Seven horses have entered Race 2, so there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

#6 Molto Vivace (5-2) is the morning-line favorite, and his credentials are respectable. He’s dropping sharply in class after finishing a pacesetting third in a 6 1/2-furlong $20,000 claimer at Keeneland. But it’s worth noting the 78 Brisnet Speed rating he earned is three points lower than the par winning number (81) for Friday’s conditions at Keeneland.

In contrast, #4 Vagabond Shoes (5-1) has won three straight starts with improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 73, 80, and 89. He started his win streak on Tapeta at Turfway Park, winning back-to-back $5,000 claiming sprints. But then he switched to dirt for an $8,000 claimer at Belterra Park and romped by 4 1/2 lengths. Vagabond Shoes is on the rise and has a strong chance to upset Molto Vivace.

#7 Mobster Gun (3-1) didn’t find much success in 2024, but he competed primarily against tougher competition than he’ll face on Friday, most notably running third in a $20,000 claimer racing one mile at Churchill Downs. He’s been freshened since last August and is eligible to improve while cutting back in distance for trainer Chris Hartman, who wins at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

#5 My Grass Is Blue (4-1) has the Brisnet Speed ratings to factor for a top-five finish on his best day. He exits a third-place finish in a $16,000 allowance optional claimer dashing six furlongs at Belterra Park.

#3 Go West (9-2) can’t be dismissed either. While many of his recent efforts have been disappointing, two starts back he ran second in a $10,000 claimer at Oaklawn Park.

Good luck!