Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $1 million Cox trainee

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 8, at Ellis Park and Del Mar, including tickets for the $4,902 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Saratoga $3,000 3 Pick 3: Hit three Pick 3s at Saratoga for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool each Friday in August.
• Del Mar $5 Late Double 25% Profit Boost: Hit the $5 Late Double at Del Mar to receive a 25% profit boost (up to $25 per day) each Friday in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $70 Saratoga Challenge
• $240 Saratoga Bonus Feeder Friday to 8/9 Saratoga/Arlington Million MMBC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $160 Colonial Downs Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:19 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Kenny McPeek has compiled an excellent 5-for-16 (31%) record saddling experienced juveniles in dirt routes at Ellis Park.

This bodes well for #4 Go to Girl (5-2), who has finished fourth and third in her first two starts sprinting against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs. The daughter of Knicks Go has the pedigree to appreciate stretching out over one mile, so let’s bet her to win and key her over #1 Search Party (9-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #4 Go to Girl (5-2)
• #1 Search Party (9-2)
• #3 Lady Upstart (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Go to Girl
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#11 Valiant (4-1), a $1 million yearling acquisition, looks like a threat to win on debut.

A son of perennial leading North American sire Into Mischief, Valiant is trained by Brad Cox, who has gone 7-for-34 (21%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Ellis Park since 2022. Sharp workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in :59 4/5) suggest Valiant has talent.

At 4-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #11 Valiant (4-1)
• #1 My World (9-2)
• #5 Mayweather (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #11 Valiant

Del Mar: Race 7: Graduation S. (five furlongs on dirt, 10:00 p.m. ET)

#6 Hero Or Zero (8-5) impressed when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita two months ago. After dueling for the lead, the gray colt kicked away to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths, earning a flashy 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

#4 Sammy Davis (9-5) likewise caught eyes in his first start. He carved out a quick pace in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar before edging clear to score by 2 1/2 lengths.

Let’s bet Hero Or Zero over Sammy Davis in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Hero Or Zero (8-5)
• #4 Sammy Davis (9-5)
• #1 What’s a Good Name (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 4

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $4,902 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Friday at Ellis Park features a $4,902 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. Select the top five finishers in order, and you can win a share of the prize pool.

Race 1 is a $16,000 starter optional claimer taking place over 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Nine horses have entered, so there are 15,120 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

Brisnet Speed ratings suggest #8 Release McCraken (7-2) is a strong win threat. He’s earned seven straight numbers in the 80-94 range, including ratings of 88 and 89 in his last two starts. None of his Friday rivals have earned a number higher than 88 in their last four starts apiece.

Release McCraken’s last two starts have yielded back-to-back wins. First, he took a $30,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds. Then he nabbed a $12,500 claimer over the same distance at Churchill Downs. In both races, he tracked the pace in third place before taking over in the final furlong.

If anyone can beat Release McCraken, it might be #5 Metatron’s Muse (2-1), who has posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 83-85 range. He’s been in sharp form at Churchill Downs since being claimed by Chris Hartman, winning a one-mile $10,000 starter allowance before finishing second in a 1 1/16-mile $12,500 starter allowance.

We recommend building Super High 5 tickets around Release McCraken and Metatron’s Muse. We’ll play both on top while counting on Release McCraken to finish in the top two and Metatron’s Muse to crack the top three.

#1 Sant’ Antimo (12-1), runner-up to Release McCraken in the latter’s $12,500 claiming win, has a shot to finish in the top five. So too does #6 Critical Threat (5-1), an inconsistent but occasionally formidable runner who won a $7,500 claimer racing one mile at Ellis last month. #2 Unstable Prince (6-1), #3 Liam the Brave (20-1), and #4 Huge Bigly (10-1) are also fast enough to factor when at their best.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 5 with 1 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 5 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 5 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 1 with 5 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 8 with 1 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 8 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 8 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 ($12)
  Total: $84

Good luck!