Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 3 first-time starters

Racing at Colonial Downs. (Photo by Coady Photography)
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 25 at Colonial Downs and Saratoga, including a horse to single in Colonial’s $3,343 Pick 6 carryover.
Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:
- New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
- British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
- 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
- Saratoga $5,000 Friday Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Play the early, middle, or late Pick 4 at Saratoga for a chance to split a $1,000 prize pool for each Pick 4 sequence. Hit any two Pick 4 sequences on the day and split an additional $2,000.
- Hastings 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Hastings to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Hastings every racing day in July.
Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:
- $70 Saratoga Challenge
- $160 Saratoga Feeder to 8/2 Whitney KDBC/NHC Qualifier
- $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
- $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/28 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
TwinSpires Jury - ep.#102 | Live Stream
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The Jury of @James_Scully111, @atTheTrack7, and @AshleyAnd502 share best bets and fades for the weekend across Saratoga, Del Mar, Woodbine, and more. https://t.co/zeeR2bRmAF
Best Bets and Quick Picks
Colonial Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:00 p.m. ET)
First-time starter #3 Country Bumpkin (8-1) has several appealing stats in his corner.
For one, he’s a son of Divining Rod, who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters. For another, he’s trained by Claudio Gonzalez, who wins at a 25% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Finally, Country Bumpkin is slated to be ridden by jockey J. G. Torrealba, who has gone 2-for-3 (67%) teaming up with Gonzalez over the last two months.
At 8-1, Country Bumpkin is worthy of a win bet.
Selections
- #3 Country Bumpkin (8-1)
- #6 Smols (9-2)
- #7 Magic Wallet (6-1)
Wagers
- $25 to win on #3 Country Bumpkin
Saratoga: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:44 p.m. ET)
#6 Red Violet (3-1) looks like a possible debut winner for trainer Chad Brown, who strikes at a 19% rate with first-time starters. The bay filly is a daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify out of the Invincible Spirit mare Rubina, who previously foaled two-time grass stakes winner Rubilinda.
Red Violet enters off a long series of workouts over the Saratoga training track and is slated to be ridden by Flavien Prat, a 25% winner teaming up with Brown over the last two months. Let’s place a win bet on Red Violet.
Selections
- #6 Red Violet (3-1)
- #8 Ms Daredevil (6-1)
- #3 Curly Q Girl (6-1)
Wagers
- $30 to win on #6 Red Violet
Colonial Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:26 p.m. ET)
#7 Culoir (6-1) looks like a promising prospect for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr., who has gone 3-for-4 (75%) to start the Colonial Downs meet.
The son of Belmont (G1) winner Union Rags is a half-brother to Really Good, winner of the 1 3/8-mile Kent S. on turf. Fast workouts on grass (including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5) suggest Culoir is ready to follow Really Good’s example and develop into a talented turf horse.
Culoir’s 6-1 morning-line odds are enticing, so we’ll round out our trio of win plays for the day with a $25 ticket on the bay colt.
Selections
- #7 Culoir (6-1)
- #6 Sharons Beach (5-2)
- #3 Behold the King (7-2)
Wagers
- $25 to win on #7 Culoir
Carryover Watch
Colonial Downs: Race 3: $3,343 Pick 6 carryover (4:56 p.m. ET)
There are three good reasons to play the “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs on Friday.
One, the base bet amount is only 50 cents, making the wager less expensive to play than similar non-jackpot Pick 6s at other tracks, which often come with a $1 or $2 minimum.
Two, the Old Dominion 6 features a modest 15% takeout rate.
Three, Friday’s Old Dominion 6 boasts a $3,343 carryover.
The opening leg of the sequence is Race 3, a $10,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race since Jan. 25. The six-furlong dirt dash has drawn eight entries, and #2 Daufuskie Island (6-5) is shaping up as a possible standout in his second start for high-percentage trainer Brittany Russell.
Daufuskie Island is dropping in class after running fifth, fourth, and fifth in a series of allowance and allowance optional claiming races at Aqueduct and Delaware Park. Along the way, he finished behind a bevy of next-out winners, so it’s safe to say he was facing quality competition.
Daufuskie Island has fared better when competing in claiming races. He kicked off 2025 by finishing first and fourth in a pair of $50,000 claiming sprints at Aqueduct, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 91 and 90 that tower over the par winning number (83) for Friday’s conditions at Colonial.
Dropping into a $10,000 claimer should make Daufuskie Island formidable, but wait, there are other positives in his corner. Russell wins at a lofty 27% rate with horses running for the second time under her care, and jockey Jevian Toledo has gone 6-for-25 (24%) teaming up with Russell over the last two months.
Throw in the fact that none of the other entrants in Race 3 have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 86 this year, and Daufuskie Island is a logical favorite and a viable single for Pick 6 bettors.
Good luck!
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