Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Black-Eyed Susan undercard

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) undercard at Pimlico on Friday, May 16, along with horses to play in five-figure carryovers at Churchill Downs and Santa Anita.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, on Friday at Churchill Downs.
• Churchill Downs Triple Rewards Points: Receive triple rewards points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Churchill Downs on Friday and Saturday.
• Preakness $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse finishes second or third in all eligible races at Pimlico on Friday and Saturday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder Friday to 5/18 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $125 Churchill Downs Cash Feeder to 5/17 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Charles Town Feeder to 5/26 Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $30 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Pimlico: Race 1: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 11:30 a.m. ET)

The action gets underway early on Friday at Pimlico—post time for the opener is 11:30 a.m. ET, so you’ll have to log on sooner than usual to play #6 Verifire (2-5) in this allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds.

Purchased for $1 million as a two-year-old in training, Verifire debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight on March 15 at Colonial Downs. On a day when the track was blazing fast and speed horses performed well, Verifire rated in fourth place before launching an early bid to take over and dominate by 6 1/4 lengths.

That decisive win yielded a 93 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Friday’s field. Let’s bet Verifire on top of a cold exacta using #4 Saxton (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Verifire (2-5)
• #4 Saxton (4-1)
• #5 Artillery Gunnar (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 4

Pimlico: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:33 p.m. ET)

#7 Privman (6-5) showed promise when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Los Alamitos last June. He was carried extremely wide by a rival approaching the homestretch, and down the lane he raced greenly while lugging in. Despite these obstacles, he was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths while finishing second to next-out Best Pal (G3) runner-up Mischief River.

Privman subsequently disappeared from the work tab for nearly four months. He’s gradually gotten back into a rhythm of serious training and arrives at Pimlico off a bullet five-furlong workout from the Santa Anita starting gate in :59 1/5, suggesting this Bob Baffert trainee is a major threat to win his comeback.

#4 Ennis Town (8-5), runner-up in a maiden special weight at Keeneland last fall, can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Privman (6-5)
• #4 Ennis Town (8-5)
• #5 Gung Ho (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 7 with 4

Pimlico: Race 10: Miss Preakness (G3, six furlongs on dirt, 4:07 p.m. ET)

#12 Vodka With a Twist (7-2) has cracked the trifecta in three straight 1 1/16-mile route races, finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), third in the Starlet (G2), and third in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2). But she lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line in all three of those starts, and she was beaten a minimum of 4 1/2 lengths each time.

Cutting back in distance for the Miss Preakness may send Vodka With a Twist to the winner’s circle. Both of her wins, including a three-length triumph in the Debutante S. at Churchill Downs, have come in sprints. She also finished second by a nose in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante (G1) to Tenma, who has won four graded stakes.

Let’s take advantage of the Preakness $10 Money Back offer and place a win bet on Vokda With a Twist.

Selections

• #12 Vodka With a Twist (7-2)
• #6 Stunner (4-1)
• #7 Delray (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #12 Vodka With a Twist

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $26,838 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

The final four races at Churchill Downs on Thursday went by without anyone hitting the $1 Super High 5. As a result, there’s a quadruple carryover worth $26,838 up for grabs in the Super High 5 on Sunday.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 1, a $50,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares dashing seven furlongs on dirt. The eight-horse field looks highly competitive on paper, and there are many viable win contenders.

One horse worth using at a bit of a price is #5 Theprincessfactor (6-1). The unraced daughter of The Factor has put together a lengthy work tab capped off by five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Churchill Downs. Trainer Joe Sharp wins at a lofty 22% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, suggesting Theprincessfactor can challenge while debuting for a $50,000 claiming tag.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is 82, but none of the experienced runners in the field have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 73. Theprincessfactor won’t have to be a superstar to win against this field, so she’s well worth using in Super High 5 tickets, including on top.

Santa Anita: Race 4: $94,783 Pick 6 carryover (5:34 p.m. ET)

Thanks to a $94,783 carryover, Friday’s $2 Pick 6 at Santa Anita is expected to feature a final pool in the $600,000 range.

The opening leg of the Pick 6 is a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Since none of the six entrants have raced, we’ll have to rely on workouts, trainer stats, and pedigrees to determine which horse(s) are worth including on Pick 6 tickets.

#1 La Ville Lumiere (8-5) and #2 Light Won Up (2-1), two daughters of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner City of Light, are logical favorites. Both enter off solid half-mile workouts from the Santa Anita starting gate, and they respectively hail from the barns of Michael McCarthy and Doug O’Neill, who win at respectable percentages with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

But a third daughter of City of Light, #4 Fire Ile (4-1), is also worth including at better odds. She’s posted a couple of five-furlong workouts at Santa Anita, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. And she’s trained by Ryan Hanson, who has compiled an excellent 12-4-1-2 (33%) record debuting juveniles in May or earlier since 2020. Don’t be surprised if Fire Ile adds a fifth win to Hanson’s tally.

Good luck!