Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers across the country

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Feb. 6 at Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park, along with horses to play in five-figure carryovers at Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita, and Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Receive 5x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing Friday in February.
• $10,000 Road to the Kentucky Derby Win Ladder: Cash $10+ single-horse win wagers in selected races at Oaklawn Park and Aqueduct on Friday to move up the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $10,000 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $1,000 Oaklawn Southwest Showdown
• $160 Aqueduct Feeder to 2/14 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier
• $100 Oaklawn Challenge
• $400 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder to 2/7 Sam F. Davis KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $70 Turfway Park Challenge
• $700 Turfway Park Feeder to 2/7 Oaklawn Horseplayers Championship

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 40 yards on dirt, 1:36 p.m. ET)

Purchased for $1.05 million as a yearling, #6 Always a Runner (6-5) is a first-time starter trained by Chad Brown. Since 2021, Brown has gone 3-for-7 (43%) debuting horses in dirt routes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Always a Runner has put together an encouraging work tab over the slow surface at Payson Park and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Samy Camacho, who has gone 5-for-10 (50%) teaming up with Brown over the last two months.

Let’s bet Always a Runner over #5 All About You (7-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Always a Runner (6-5)
• #5 All About You (7-5)
• #7 Evangalina (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 5

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 4: $32,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:06 p.m. ET)

#7 Choose Your Words (7-2) has a shot to factor on debut. She’s a daughter of Bucchero (who sires a sharp 16% winners from first-time starters), and she’s trained by John Vinson, a 25% winner with horses debuting in maiden claimers.

This isn’t the toughest field on paper, so let’s bet Choose Your Words to win.

Selections

• #7 Choose Your Words (7-2)
• #8 Sarasota Honey (5-2)
• #6 Runtown (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Choose Your Words

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 3:22 p.m. ET)

Trainer Riley Mott does well saddling experienced three-year-olds in Tapeta routes at Gulfstream Park. His career record with such runners stands at 6-for-16 (38%).

This bodes well for #6 Alluring Beauty (10-1), a second-time starter from Mott’s barn. Alluring Beauty debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs, in which she rallied to finish third. Adding Lasix and blinkers while stretching out for her sophomore debut may trigger the improvement she needs to spring a double-digit upset.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Alluring Beauty (10-1)
• #8 Wujood (6-1)
• #5 Bless Her (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Alluring Beauty

Carryover Watch

Oaklawn Park: Race 7: $20,235 Pick 6 carryover (3:28 p.m. ET)

The stakes-packed Friday card at Oaklawn Park includes a $20,235 carryover in the $1 Classix Pick 6.

Our best recommendation for a single is #8 Blue Fire (5-2) in Race 10, the six-furlong Bugler S. for fillies and mares. Blue Fire has spent the majority of her career competing against Louisiana-breds, but she also performed strongly in the seven-furlong Eight Belles (G2) at Churchill Downs last year, finishing second by 1 1/4 lengths with a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating.

Blue Fire is rounding back to peak form following a lengthy layoff. If she produces an Eight Belles-level performance in the Bugler, she’ll be a formidable contender.

Sunset Pick 6: $43,878 Pick 6 carryover (3:52 p.m. ET)

The $1 Sunset Pick 6 is built around the final three races apiece at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Friday’s sequence features an enticing $43,878 carryover.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, check out #4 Runamileinmyshoes (6-5) in Leg 5, which is Race 8 at Santa Anita, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt.

Runamileinmyshoes has spent the vast majority of her career competing on turf, but she’s also 2-for-2 on dirt. On Oct. 17, she wired a one-mile $20,000 allowance optional claimer for California-breds at Santa Anita with a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

Runamileinmyshoes is facing only four rivals in Race 8, and there isn’t much speed in the field, so she has a strong chance to shake loose up front and never look back.

Santa Anita: Race 4: $52,045 Pick 6 carryover (5:02 p.m. ET)

The $2 Pick 6 at Santa Anita boasts a $52,045 carryover for Friday’s card.

The penultimate leg of the sequence is Race 8, in which #4 Runamileinmyshoes (6-5) is a compelling favorite for reasons outlined above. As in the Sunset Pick 6, we recommend singling Runamileinmyshoes in Santa Anita’s Pick 6.

Turfway Park: Race 10: $11,480 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

Friday’s $11,480 carryover in Turfway Park’s $1 Super High 5 is available to chase in Race 10, a $30,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta.

We’re drawn to the chances of #5 Itchy (4-1). He debuted with a fourth-place finish in a $50,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Los Alamitos. It turns out he was facing a quality field, as the top two finishers recorded next-out wins.

Itch has been freshened since September and is adding Lasix for his sophomore debut. New trainer William Morey wins at a 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and apprentice jockey Xarel Forde (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) has the mount, so there’s a lot to like about Itchy. Don’t leave him off the top of your tickets.

Good luck!