Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers around the country

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, March 6 at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park, along with horses to bet in a trio of enticing carryovers at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, and Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15x Odds Boost at Gulfstream Park: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Gulfstream Park each racing Friday in March.
• SkyWorld Racing Late Pick 4 Insurance: Receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 4 wagers at select Australian tracks if you have three out of four winning legs.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/21 Louisiana Derby/Jeff Ruby KDBC Qualifier
• $70 Oaklawn Challenge
• $320 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder Friday to 3/7 Tampa Bay Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $70 Turfway Park Challenge
• $160 Turfway Park Feeder to 3/14 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 1:36 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Chad Brown has compiled an excellent 22-for-68 (32%) record saddling first-time starters in turf routes at Tampa Bay Downs.

This bodes well for #3 Instability (5-2). A son of Lope de Vega out of the Dark Angel mare Miss Katie Mae, Instability is bred to shine on turf and enters off a lengthy series of workouts at Payson Park, suggesting he’s a great fit for Race 3.

Let’s place a win bet on Instability.

Selections

• #3 Instability (5-2)
• #9 Democracy Defender (8-5)
• #1 Neo Zapper (15-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Instability

Turfway Park: Race 4: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#3 My Wish (3-1) has competed twice against tougher competition on turf, finishing fourth and fifth in a pair of 7 1/2-furlong $25,000 maiden claimers at Gulfstream Park.

Dropping in class should help My Wish challenge for victory, and the switch from turf to Tapeta could potentially trigger improvement. Let’s bet My Wish to win.

Selections

• #3 My Wish (3-1)
• #8 Una Roca (12-1)
• #4 Stay Beautiful (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 My Wish

Turfway Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/4 miles on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Real Drama (2-1) ran strongly in her Tapeta debut at Turfway last month. Facing six rivals in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight, the daughter of Oscar Performance tracked the pace in third place before advancing to finish second, earning a career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Friday’s conditions is 81, so Real Drama is already fast enough to win a race like this. Let’s key her over #6 Raconteuse (5-2) and #8 Roiling (5-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Real Drama (2-1)
• #6 Raconteuse (5-2)
• #8 Roiling (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 6,8 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Sunset Six: $17,993 Pick 6 carryover (4:23 p.m. ET)

The opening leg of Friday’s Sunset Six—which boasts a $17,993 carryover—is Race 8 at Gulfstream Park, a $25,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. We recommend singling #1 Sonic Surge (2-1).

Sonic Surge is dropping in class after finishing seventh and fifth in a pair of maiden special weights at Aqueduct last fall. His fifth-place finish came in a deep six-furlong sprint from which the first three finishers all came back to record next-out wins. The winner, Iron Honor, recently took the Gotham (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

With Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 76 under his belt, Sonic Surge is the fastest horse entered in Race 8. He’s adding Lasix for his first start as a gelding and should be tough to beat while dropping in class for trainer George Weaver, a 23% winner with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition.

Santa Anita: Race 4: $45,603 Pick 6 carryover (5:06 p.m. ET)

Santa Anita’s traditional $2 Pick 6 features a $45,603 carryover for Friday.

The sequence gets underway in Race 4, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for California-bred three-year-olds dashing six furlongs on dirt. If you need a single to build tickets around, we recommend thinking slightly outside the box with #1 Fionello (2-1).

Fionello is dropping in class after competing against stakes competition in five of his last six starts. He exits a tiring sixth-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile California Chrome Cal Cup Derby and should appreciate cutting back in distance. Key rivals #4 Tommy Norris (9-5) and #5 Southern Melodee (2-1) are speedsters who figure to duel for early supremacy, so if they set a hot pace, Fionello can rally past them in the homestretch.

Turfway Park: Race 4: $5,572 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

Friday’s $5,572 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park is up for grabs in Race 10, a $15,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds racing one mile on Tapeta.

#1 Burden of Dreams (3-1) is dropping in class after finishing fifth in a $50,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance. #5 Shirley’s Boyz (4-1) and #4 Blythes Ferry (9-2) finished sixth and eighth in a recent $30,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway.

We suggest building tickets around these three geldings, counting on each one to finish somewhere in the top five.

Good luck!