Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill daily double

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs, including a ticket for the $3,897 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 10x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in November.
• $50 Late Pick 4 Insurance for Australian Racing: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 4 wagers at select Australian racetracks if you have three out of four winning legs.
• $2,500 Win Ladder at Woodbine Thoroughbred: Opt in and place $10+ single-horse win wagers in all eligible races at Woodbine each racing Friday and Saturday in November. Winning wagers move you up the Win Ladder; the more races you win, the bigger your share of the $2,500 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $35 Meydan Feeder to 12/18 Dubai Festive Friday Qualifier
• $86 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 11/14 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $80 Belmont Park Feeder to 11/13 Churchill Downs NHC Bonus Feeder
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder to 11/7 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $120 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 11/20 Churchill Downs CBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:29 p.m. ET)

#9 Sutura (5-2) might be a 0-for-8 maiden, but three of her defeats have come on dirt, and two others have come against stakes competition. She’s finished second in all three of her starts against maiden special weight company on turf, including a half-length defeat in a five-furlong contest at Tampa Bay Downs.

Cutting back in distance off a runner-up finish in a six-furlong sprint at Santa Anita should help Sutura graduate. We’ll bet her to win and single her to start a daily double.

Selections

• #9 Sutura (5-2)
• #10 Beach Ballad (7-2)
• #1 Kristi’s Spirit (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Sutura
• $5 Double: 9 with 8
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

#8 Jackie’s Lively (9-2), a daughter of champion male sprinter Jackie’s Warrior, has put together a promising work tab highlighted by a quick half-mile in :47 3/5 at Ellis Park. She looks like a threat to win on debut under jockey Luis Saez, who has gone 6-for-18 (33%) teaming up with Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen over the last two months.

Let’s place a win bet on Jackie’s Lively.

Selections

• #8 Jackie’s Lively (9-2)
• #2 Peppermint Quill (3-1)
• #7 Symmetric (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Jackie’s Lively

Churchill Downs: Race 8: $175,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Yinzer (5-2) has developed into a capable grass horse. He’s crossed the wire first in three of his last four starts, including when wiring a $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Sept. 24 at Churchill Downs.

Early speed is Yinzer’s strong suit, and he should have every chance to lead all the way while facing only five rivals in Race 8. Let’s load up with a win bet on Yinzer. 

Selections

• #6 Yinzer (5-2)
• #2 Echo Lane (10-1)
• #4 Air Recruit (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #6 Yinzer

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $3,897 Super High 5 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)

The final race on Thursday’s card at Churchill Downs went by without anyone solving the $1 Super High 5, which means there’s a $3,897 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in the opening race on Friday.

Race 1 is a $150,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. Seven horses have entered, which is the minimum number needed for Super High 5 wagering to be offered. If there’s a scratch from Race 1, Super High 5 wagering will be canceled and the carryover will shift to the first race offering at least seven starters.

Assuming Race 1 goes off with seven starters, we recommend keying #2 National Forest (4-5) on top of your Super High 5 tickets.

Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,5,6 with 3,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with ALL ($54)

National Forest is dropping in class after finishing second and sixth in his first two starts against maiden special weight competition. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses tackling the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, and National Forest’s best Brisnet Speed rating is higher than the par winning number for Friday’s conditions, so there’s a lot to like about this third-time starter.

National Forest’s unraced stablemate #5 Frosty Jack (4-1) is a logical candidate to use underneath. The son of Jack Christopher enters off an encouraging work tab, and 40% of the horses Cox debuts at the maiden claiming level finish in the top three.

#3 Dark Sky (6-1) can’t be underestimated after debuting with a seventh-place finish in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. The winner, Just for Pipa, returned to win the Bowman Mill S. at Keeneland in his next start. Dark Sky is picking up apprentice jockey Yomar Ortiz Jr., who rides with a 10-pound weight allowance, so the weight break while dropping in class could trigger a competitive showing.

#6 Lowcountry Promise (6-1), a first-time starter from the barn of Peter Eurton, also warrants respect. Eurton wins at a solid 19% rate with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level, and jockey Luis Saez (a 60% winner teaming up with Eurton over the last two months) is named to ride.

We’ll add #1 Free and Happy (15-1) and #4 Authentic Surprise (15-1) for fourth place before hitting the “ALL” button for the final slot of our Super High 5.

Good luck!