Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Delaware’s $11,046 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, June 6 at Churchill Downs and Gulfstream Park, along with a horse to single in Delaware Park’s $11,046 Pick 5 carryover.

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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 6/14 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $200 Churchill Downs Cash Feeder to 6/7 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Charles Town Feeder to 6/21 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#7 What’s a Good Name (6-1) looks ready to win on debut for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Certainly her pedigree is promising. The daughter of Grazen was produced by That’s the Idea, who won multiple stakes at age two before foaling the juvenile winners (and eventual stakes winners) Competitive Idea and Only One America.

Even better, What’s a Good Name has shown speed in the mornings, most notably clocking a bullet half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :46 3/5. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 What’s a Good Name (6-1)
• #9 My Raquel (8-1)
• #4 Pulstar (3-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #7 What’s a Good Name

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 12:50 p.m. ET)

Trainer Michael Yates has done well debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Gulfstream Park, compiling a 16-for-77 (21%) tally since 2020.

This bodes well for #3 Florida Gal (5-2). A daughter of Cajun Breeze (who sires a sharp 16% winners from first-time starters), Florida Gal is slated to debut under apprentice jockey Yolber Torres, who rides with a 10-pound weight allowance. That weight break could make Florida Gal difficult to catch.

#7 Estrella (2-1) and #5 Winrooski (7-2) can battle to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Florida Gal (5-2)
• #7 Estrella (2-1)
• #5 Winrooski (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Florida Gal
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 5,7 ($10)
  Total: $35

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 2:32 p.m. ET)

#1 Chasing My Dream (5-2) debuted against tougher competition in the Royal Palm Juvenile S. dashing five furlongs over the Gulfstream turf course. After sticking within a couple lengths of the early pace, he tired to finish fifth in an eight-horse field.

Dropping in class for his second start should put Chasing My Dream in contention for victory, so we’ll try a win bet on this son of Win Win Win.

Selections

• #1 Chasing My Dream (5-2)
• #7 Ciborio (2-1)
• #2 Still Bulletproof (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Chasing My Dream

Carryover Watch

Delaware Park: Race 3: $11,046 Pick 5 carryover (1:35 p.m. ET)

If you’re a fan of five-figure, non-jackpot Pick 5 carryovers (and frankly, who isn’t?), then you’ll want to chase Friday’s $11,046 Late Pick 5 carryover at Delaware Park.

The takeout rate is only 15%, and the non-jackpot nature of the prize pool packs betting value into the 50-cent wager.

The opening leg of the Late Pick 5 is Race 3, a $25,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Only six horses have entered—all of them three years old—and we view #2 Brightness (9-5) as a logical single even though she’s the second choice on the morning line.

Morning-line favorite #6 Winnie’s Dash (3-2) is an obvious contender after finishing second in a $25,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Delaware last month, earning a 65 Brisnet Speed rating. But the credentials of Brightness are more appealing for several reasons:

• Brightness is dropping in class. Two starts back, she finished second in a $45,000-$36,000 maiden claimer at Laurel Park, and last time out she ran fourth in a Delaware Park maiden special weight.
• Brightness has posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 70 and 67 in her last two starts. Both numbers exceed Winnie’s Dash’s career-best ratings, and her 70 is the highest number belonging to any horse in Friday’s field.
• Trainer Jamie Ness has gone 14-for-34 (41%) at Delaware Park this meet and wins at a spectacular 44% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition.
• Jockey Martin Chuan has gone 4-for-25 (25%) teaming up with Ness over the last two months. He also has the highest win percentage (13%) at Delaware Park this meet among jockeys riding in Race 3.

By opposing Winnie’s Dash and singling Brightness, we can dramatically simplify the ticket assembly process. Before scratches, the Late Pick 5 contains 28,224 possible outcomes. Singling Brightness cuts the number of possibilities to consider down to 4,704, a very manageable number to deal with across the remaining four races.

Good luck!