Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Dr. Perry can shine on dirt

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, along with horses to play in Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Turfway Park and Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January.
• 8x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at your most wagered track each day this week from Monday through Sunday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 1/26 Fair Grounds/Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $160 Turfway Bonus Feeder Friday to 1/18 Lecomte KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 12:52 p.m. ET)

#3 Lean Music Machine (5-2) ran respectably when making his turf debut over this course, distance, and class level on Dec. 13. He pressed an opening quarter-mile in :21.43 and stayed within two lengths of a :43.71 half-mile on his way to fourth place, beaten 3 3/4 lengths.

Trainer Brian Lynch wins at a 23% rate with horses racing on grass for the second time, so if Lean Music Machine catches a slightly more relaxed pace on Friday, he can graduate in his four-year-old debut. Let’s bet Lean Music Machine to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #3 Lean Music Machine (5-2)
• #1 Lamcaro (8-1)
• #6 Precisely (9-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #3 Lean Music Machine
• $15 Double: 3 with 1
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: $8,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 1:24 p.m. ET)

#1 Peggysue I Love U (1-1) has started twice in sprints over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta. Both of those efforts yielded top-three finishes in $25,000 claimers, and Peggysue I Love U earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 78 and 75.

Those numbers exceed the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (74) for Friday’s conditions at Gulfstream, so descending into an $8,000 claimer should make Peggysue I Love U tough to beat for high-percentage trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., a 30% winner with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Let’s single Peggysue I Love U to conclude our double wager, then bet her over #2 Holy Coffee (8-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #1 Peggysue I Love U (1-1)
• #2 Holy Coffee (8-1)
• #6 One Smokin’ Rita (5-2)

Wagers

• $8 Exacta: 1 with 2

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 7: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:18 p.m. ET)

#3 Dr. Perry (7-2) spent 2024 competing with some success on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park. But his highest Brisnet Speed ratings have been earned on dirt. Back in 2023, he cracked the trifecta in $40,000 and $50,000 claimers at Saratoga and Ellis Park.

Returning to dirt for his 2025 debut may trigger a winning run from Dr. Perry. He’s finished first and second in his last two starts against $8,000 claiming competition on Tapeta, so Friday’s class level should suit him perfectly.

We’ll bet Dr. Perry to win and key him over #2 Maclin (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Dr. Perry (7-2)
• #2 Maclin (2-1)
• #4 Jabran (3-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #3 Dr. Perry
• $7 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $3,349 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Pick 6 on Thursday at Fair Grounds, triggering a $3,349 carryover into Friday’s card.

The sequence begins in Race 3, a tricky $50,000 maiden optional claimer for three-year-old fillies dashing about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. It’s tricky because the two morning-line favorites, #2 Terra Bella (3-1) and #7 Make a Million (7-2), have both suffered decisive defeats over this course, distance, and class level.

That’s why we strongly suggest using #1 Jewish Mother (5-1) on your tickets. Her lone start in a turf sprint came in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs, in which she finished second in a 10-horse field while earning a sharp 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

Jewish Mother also finished second by a neck after setting the pace in a one-mile $50,000 maiden optional claimer over the Ellis Park turf course during the summer. And last time out, she finished fifth out of 12 in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on turf at Laurel Park.

Cutting back to a sprint and dropping back down into a $50,000 maiden optional claimer may prove to be a winning combination for Jewish Mother. The fact she’s racing on Lasix for the first time (a 29% winning move for trainer Brittany Russell) adds to the appeal. If you use only one horse in the opening leg of the Pick 6, make it Jewish’s Mother.

Turfway Park : Race 5: $180,036 Pick 5 carryover (7:55 p.m. ET)

Winter weather prevented Turfway Park from racing on Wednesday and Thursday. Assuming racing goes ahead as scheduled on Friday, bettors will have a massive $180,036 carryover to pursue in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

One live longshot you won’t want to leave off your tickets is #11 Sauer Power (12-1) in Race 5, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. Sauer Power is a first-time starter from the barn of Paulo Lobo, who has compiled a stellar 9-for-24 (38%) record debuting horses in Turfway sprints since 2022.

Sauer Power has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for her first start, capped off by a respectable half-mile from the starting gate in :48 4/5. She isn’t facing the toughest field—morning-line favorite #3 Montego Bay (5-2) is a 0-for-7 maiden who finished a distant fourth over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 12—so Sauer Power won’t have to be a superstar to win at double-digit odds.

Good luck!