Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ellis Park’s $21,081 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 7 at Ellis Park and Del Mar, including a ticket for the $21,081 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in August.
• Late Pick 5 Insurance at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers at Colonial Downs if you have four out of five winning legs, each racing Friday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at Saratoga: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga each racing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $72 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga NHC Qualifier
• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $120 Ellis Park Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $80 Woodbine Feeder to 8/14 King's Plate Bonus Qualifier
• $400 Saratoga Bonus Feeder Friday to 8/8 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $88 Charles Town Feeder to 8/14 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:42 p.m. ET)

#2 Astar (8-1) is cutting back dramatically in distance after spending his first five starts competing over trips from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/2 miles. He tired in all five of those races, so perhaps shortening up to 5 1/2 furlongs will unlock an improved performance from the son of Oscar Performance.

Since morning-line favorite #1 Dismiss (7-2) is an 0-for-10 maiden, this race could be ripe for an upset. Let’s try a win bet on Astar and also play an exacta using Dismiss for second place.

Selections

• #2 Astar (8-1)
• #1 Dismiss (7-2)
• #7 Mr. Vaggio (10-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 Astar
• $4 Exacta: 2 with 1
  Total: $20

Del Mar: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 7:06 p.m. ET)

#2 Big Twist (7-2) looks like a threat to win on debut for trainer Tim Yakteen, who strikes at a respectable 15% rate with first-time starters.

Big Twist has put together an encouraging work tab highlighted by a bullet three furlongs from the Santa Anita starting gate in :35 3/5, as well as five furlongs at Del Mar in 1:00 4/5. She’s slated to be ridden by Joel Rosario, who has gone 2-for-3 (67%) teaming up with Yakteen over the last two months.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Big Twist (7-2)
• #8 Not So Merry Mary (3-1)
• #6 Potica (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Big Twist

Del Mar: Race 7: Graduation S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 8:06 p.m. ET)

#4 Early Encore (6-5) was tons the best when debuting in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for California-breds at Santa Anita. He led by daylight at every call and crossed the wire in front by 6 3/4 lengths, earning a flashy 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

Early Encore should be tough to beat in his second start for trainer John Sadler, who wins at a 21% rate in ungraded stakes.

#6 King Kameha (7-2) can battle with #2 Net Par (3-1) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Early Encore (6-5)
• #6 King Kameha (7-2)
• #2 Net Par (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 2,6 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $21,081 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

Friday’s racing action at Ellis Park kicks off on a high note with an enticing $21,081 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 1, a $30,000 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses who have never won two races. The six-furlong dirt dash has attracted eight horses, so there are 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

We recommend keying #1 Justifreak (3-1) on top of your tickets.

Wager

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2,4 with 2,4,5,6 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 2,4,5,6,7,8 ($54)

Justifreak is dropping in class after competing exclusively against tougher competition. On June 19 at Churchill Downs, he returned from a long layoff in a six-furlong $50,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, and he performed respectably, pressing fast fractions of :22.06 and :44.68 before weakening to finish seventh by 5 1/4 lengths.

Descending to the $30,000 level for his second start back should make Justifreak formidable under hot jockey Ben Curtis, who has gone 12-for-60 (20%) at Ellis Park this meet.

Underneath Justifreak, we’ll emphasize #4 Good Mojo (7-2) and #2 Stone County (5-1).

Good Mojo ran well sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at this track and class level on July 19, carving out the pace before fighting on to finish second by a head. In the process, he earned a sharp 88 Brisnet Speed rating.

Stone County likewise earned an 88 Brisnet Speed rating when closing from midfield to win a recent six-furlong $30,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park by two lengths.

#5 Greers Ferry (4-1) and #6 Imperial Ruler (9-2) are other logical contenders.

Greers Ferry has been freshened since misfiring in a $20,000 starter allowance last September. He’d previously shown good form finishing third in $20,000 and $30,000 starter allowances at Churchill Downs.

Imperial Ruler ran well in a $30,000 claimer for non-winners of two races on June 4. Sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs, he set the pace before weakening to finish third, beaten only two lengths.

We’ll round out our tickets with #7 Impavido (6-1) and #8 Big Tech (10-1).

Good luck!