Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ellis Park’s $42,974 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 1, at Ellis Park and Del Mar, including analysis of Ellis Park’s $42,974 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• Saratoga $3,000 3 Pick 3: Hit three Pick 3s at Saratoga for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool each Friday in August.
• Del Mar $5 Late Double 25% Profit Boost: Hit the $5 Late Double at Del Mar to receive a 25% profit boost (up to $25 per day) each Friday in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $320 Saratoga Bonus Feeder Friday to 8/2 Whitney KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $70 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Colonial Downs Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga/Arlington Million MMBC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:44 p.m. ET)

Trainer Eoin Harty enjoyed strong success debuting juveniles at Ellis Park in 2024, going 3-for-6 (50%). That included a 2-for-4 (50%) tally on turf.

This bodes well for Harty’s unraced juvenile #1 Spin a Tune (3-1), a Godolphin homebred daughter of Hard Spun. The bay filly has posted sharp workouts at Turfway Park, including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :48 1/5 and another half-mile in :47 2/5, suggesting she has talent.

Let’s bet Spin a Tune to win, then key her over fellow first-time starter #7 Immortalised (4-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #1 Spin a Tune (3-1)
• #7 Immortalised (4-1)
• #10 Street Beast (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Spin a Tune
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 7:31 p.m. ET)

#2 One Step Beyond (5-2) has run well in two starts against tougher competition. In a $50,000 maiden claimer for California-breds, he rallied to finish third. Then, in a non-state-restricted $30,000 maiden claimer, he unleashed a giant late charge to finish second by a head.

Dropping into a $20,000 maiden claimer for California-breds should suit One Step Beyond just fine, and adding blinkers has the potential to sharpen his early speed and get him into contention sooner. Let’s bet One Step Beyond to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #2 One Step Beyond (5-2)
• #4 Mr. Pippins (9-2)
• #1 Mr. Cardenas (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 One Step Beyond
• $10 Double: 2 with 5
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 8:02 p.m. ET)

#5 Proletariat (4-1) showed potential when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight on dirt at Santa Anita, finishing third with a respectable 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

As a son of Raging Bull out of a mare by Kodiac, Proletariat is bred to thrive while switching to dirt. Adding blinkers offers potential for further improvement.

At 4-1, Proletariat is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also single him to conclude our double.

Selections

• #5 Proletariat (4-1)
• #3 B G Bullet (3-1)
• #7 Sendit Mo (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Proletariat

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 6: $42,974 Pick 5 carryover (3:12 p.m. ET)

Better late than never, the $42,974 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Ellis Park is up for grabs on Friday.

The lucrative non-jackpot prize pool would have been available to chase last Sunday, except that the Sunday (and Monday) cards at Ellis were derailed due to rain. The Sunday card was postponed until Friday, hence today’s carryover offering.

One of the trickiest legs of the Pick 5 is Race 8, a seven-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds and older horses. The 10-horse field is comprised of six experienced runners and four first-time starters, and it’s tough to predict which group will yield the winner.

Among the experienced entrants, #7 Saint Shance (4-1) owns the best recent Brisnet Speed rating, having posted an 81 when finishing second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway Park. But that contest took place on Tapeta, so switching to dirt is at least a small question mark for Saint Shance. On the bright side, he enters off fast half-mile workouts on dirt at Churchill Downs.

It should be noted, however, that the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Friday’s conditions at Ellis Park is 89, eight points higher than the number Saint Shance posted on debut. Unless Saint Shance (or one of the other experienced runners) improves significantly, the first-time starters in this field won’t have to be superstars to come out ahead.

Two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox has entered a pair of unraced three-year-olds: #2 Heroic Act (5-1) and #9 Zafari (6-1). Of the pair, we prefer Heroic Act. The son of elite sire Curlin has put together a respectable work tab, primarily at Keeneland, and is slated to be ridden by Florent Geroux, a 21% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months. Since 2020, Cox has gone 3-for-13 (23%) debuting three-year-olds on dirt at Ellis Park.

But #8 Clear the Beach (6-1) shouldn’t be underestimated either. The Kelsey Danner trainee enters off fast half-mile workouts in :47 1/5 and :46 4/5 at Churchill Downs. Sire Omaha Beach is responsible for a sharp 15% winners from first-time starters, and jockey Adam Beschizza has won at a 23% rate with Danner over the last two months, so there are plenty of positives in Clear the Beach’s corner.

We recommend using Saint Shance, Heroic Act, and Clear the Beach in the Pick 5. We also suggest betting exacta tickets, counting on Heroic Act to finish either first or second.

Race 8 wagers

• $5 Exacta: 2 with 8,9 ($10)
• $5 Exacta: 8,9 with 2 ($10)
  Total: $20

Good luck!