Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Huge carryovers at Keeneland, Santa Anita

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 10, at Gulfstream Park, Keeneland, and Aqueduct, along with analysis of rich carryovers at Keeneland and Santa Anita.

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• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.
• $3,000 Keeneland WIN Ladder: Place a $5+ single-horse win wager on selected races at Keeneland each Thursday and Friday in October to move up the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $3,000 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $70 Keeneland Challenge
• $400 Keeneland Bonus Feeder Friday to 10/12 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 10/18 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 2:56 p.m. ET)

#1 Rosie Dozie (4-1) is an unraced two-year-old from the barn of Tareq Moubarak, who strikes at an 18% rate with first-time starters and at a 33% rate with horses debuting on turf.

Rosie Dozie breezed over the Saratoga training track turf course during the summer and enters off a bullet three-furlong workout at Gulfstream Park, setting the stage for a competitive debut. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Rosie Dozie (4-1)
• #8 Silver Juani (5-2)
• #4 Lucky Win Coco (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Rosie Dozie

Keeneland: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#8 Further Ado (4-1) finished fifth in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, then improved to third place in a seven-furlong dash over the same track. The latter race was won by Talkin, who returned to finish second in the Champagne (G1).

Further Ado has a strong chance to shine while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. Keep in mind, trainer Brad Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time, and at a powerful 38% rate with horses stretching out to a route off back-to-back sprints.

#2 Ambassador Blue (8-1), who has finished behind future graded stakes winners Ted Noffey and Bottas in his first two starts, has a shot to round out the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Further Ado (4-1)
• #2 Ambassador Blue (8-1)
• #3 Highly Connected (30-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Further Ado
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 2
  Total: $30

Aqueduct: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on turf, 4:53 p.m. ET)

#11 Channelview (6-1) has breezed a few times over the Saratoga training track turf course, most notably clocking a quick half-mile in :48 1/5. The daughter of Charlatan is trained by George Weaver, who wins at a 22% rate with horses debuting on turf.

Channelview has the credentials to factor in her first start, so her 6-1 morning-line odds are enticing. Let’s bet her to win and add a small exacta using #4 Delightful Darling (3-1) for second place.

Selections

• #11 Channelview (6-1)
• #4 Delightful Darling (3-1)
• #1 Belarosa (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Channelview
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 4
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $103,127 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)
Keeneland: Race 10: $10,549 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

Keeneland’s Friday card includes a pair of lucrative carryovers.

The $1 Pick 6 boasts a double carryover worth $103,127, while the $1 Super High 5 features a small, but nevertheless value-adding $10,549 prize pool.

Both carryovers involve Race 10, a $50,000 starter allowance for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. #1 Atarah (3-1) is a logical favorite. In a $50,000 claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs last month, she settled in midfield before rallying to win by 2 1/2 lengths, earning a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

Atarah was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who has a 22% strike rate with new claiming acquisitions. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Friday’s conditions at Keeneland is only 88, so if Atarah reproduces or improves upon her latest effort, she’ll be tough to beat. Consider singling Atarah in the Pick 6 and keying her on top in the Super High 5.

Santa Anita: Race 4: $45,583 Pick 6 carryover (5:31 p.m. ET)
Coast to Coast Pick 5: $48,661 carryover (6:30 p.m. ET)
Sunset Pick 6: $54,236 carryover (7:04 p.m. ET)
Santa Anita: Race 9: $35,706 Super High 5 carryover (8:03 p.m. ET)

Friday brings an abundance of five-figure carryovers involving Santa Anita.

The traditional $2 Pick 6 and $1 Super High 5 at Santa Anita, respectively, feature carryovers worth $45,583 and $35,706. Meanwhile, the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 and Sunset Pick 6—covering races at both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park—boast prize pools of $48,661 and $54,236.

If you’re taking aim at the traditional Pick 6, we recommend #3 Egyptian Mau (3-1) as a viable single in Race 5, an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting about 6 1/2 furlongs over the downhill turf course.

Formerly based in South Africa, Egyptian Mau ran well when making her U.S. debut over this course, distance, and class level on Jan. 23. Despite running into traffic trouble, she finished third behind future Monrovia (G3) and Unbridled Sidney (G3) winner Queen Maxima.

Egyptian Mau has only run once since then, closing furiously after early trouble to finish second by a neck in a five-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Aug. 29 at Del Mar. With that prep run under her belt, Egyptian Mau should be formidable while stretching back out in distance.

The Super High 5 carryover is up for grabs in Race 9, which is also the closing leg of the Sunset Pick 6. It’s a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for California-breds racing one mile on turf. It’s a competitive field, and you can make a case for plenty of horses to factor. One is #2 Druidic (12-1), a longshot well worth using.

Druidic misfired in a recent start over this class level on dirt at Los Alamitos, finishing last out of eight. But his two starts on turf during the summer at Del Mar were excellent. He won a one-mile $16,000 starter allowance before finishing second in a 1 1/16-mile contest over the same class level.

The Brisnet Speed ratings Druidic earned at Del Mar (84 and 92) stack up well against Friday’s field, suggesting the five-year-old gelding has a chance to surprise at double-digit odds.

Good luck!